Why were insiders cashing out ?

NYSE volumes have shrunk significantly, running as low as 30% below average, which could mean a few things. Whatever the reason, higher highs on low volume is generally not a positive sign.

There is one indicator flashing danger at the moment. We should be aware of it--the insider sell/buy ratio, which last week saw wild numbers on the sell side at 434:1.  For the week, $1.7 million worth of stock was bought in sixteen separate purchases, while 126 sales totaled just under $750 million.

Why were insiders cashing out in such manic fashion? Do they know something that we don't know? 

Many of the stock market experts continue to be extremely bullish, and you are hearing again the tired and bogus line that “This time it`s different”.

Don`t buy it, and be on top of reducing equity allocations or have a plan on the downside so you don`t get caught in the next down -50% market cycle.

Extreme caution ! Bears in charge if S&P 1270 is broken

The Nasdaq did climb back to 2750, then fell steeply on last Friday. We have been warning for an imminent downturn, as indicated on the charts.
This could well be the start of a multi-month slide. We have come a long way since last August, but we need to remember that markets never go up in straight line.

The S&P touched the 1300 level, then turned down. The uptrend is still intact, so there is room for some rebound this week. But the upcoming bearish period is likely to take the S&P down in February, and break the uptrend that has been in place since last August. In this week, 1270 area acts as the key support. Any fall below 1270 would confirm this scenario. Then the first target would become 1180.

Despite an overbought market condition, rising oil prices, and Middle East governments in chaos, stocks rallied to new highs. The threats to the political stability of Egypt, Jordan, Yemen and even Saudi Arabia were ignored as investors focused instead on an improving U.S. economy.

Despite the DJIA crossing 12000 and S&P 500 breaching 1300 this week, Many indices in the U.S., as well as globally have failed to follow the DJIA and S&P 500 over the last week, and I see this as a major warning that a pullback or correction is near. In addition to the non-confirmations by many indices, I am also seeing plenty of divergences with respect to market internal data. At the same time, price momentum is overbought on a daily and weekly basis, and market sentiment is at extremely bullish camp. This, to me, all adds up to a 5% to 10% decline in the major indices over the next month or two.

With the exception of very quick bullish trades, I suggest extreme caution. When this market turns south, there will not be enough room to provide those seeking the exits.

US Debt crosses $14 trillion mark

The amount of U.S. debt subject to the country's legal maximum has topped $14 trillion for the first time.

That means the country is less than $300 billion away from the $14.294 trillion debt ceiling, which is a cap on how much the federal government can legally borrow. The Treasury Department estimates that borrowing could reach the cap sometime between March 31 and May 16.

If U.S. borrowing hits the ceiling and lawmakers fail to raise it, Treasury would be prohibited from borrowing more money. The country would be unable to pay its bondholders or fund programs and benefits in full. That's because there wouldn't be enough tax revenue coming in to cover all of the country's bills.

The effect would be crippling not only to the U.S. economy but very likely to economies and markets worldwide. At a minimum, a default could pummel U.S. bonds, the dollar and U.S. investors' portfolios.

Today, the United States spends roughly 76 cents of every federal tax dollar on just four things: Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and interest on the $14 TRILLION DEBT. That leaves 24 cents of revenue to pay for everything else the federal government does. That's not a lot. But it's a mint compared to what could be left over by 2020, according to a simulation made by the Government Accountability Office.

Fail to curb the growth in the country's debt, by 2020 Washington could be spending 92 cents of every tax dollar on Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and interest alone. That would leave just 8 cents to pay for everything else.

Why It's Harder For Older Women to Have Healthy Babies

No one likes being labeled, but celebrate your 35th birthday and get pregnant and you're out of luck: like it or not, the letters “AMA” get slapped across your chart. AMA, or advanced medical age, is largely an arbitrary designation. After all, it's not as if your eggs are aware it's your big day. But experts need a way to delineate the increasing risks inherent in conceiving a child after you've passed the 35-year mark.

As women reach their mid- to late-30s and hit 40, they are at greater risk of having chromosomal problems in their eggs — known in scientific terms as maternal age–associated aneuploidy. As a result, all the cells that result from the abnormal chromosomes will also be irregular.

Most of the time, the situation turns lethal because an affected embryo will die shortly after. Down syndrome, or Trisomy 21, is a notable exception; it's one of the only aneuploidies that can result in a live birth. “By age 40, probably half of the eggs are aneuploidies,” says Michael Lampson, an assistant professor of biology at Penn who has co-authored research into the mechanism behind the abnormalities.

Now Lampson and Richard Schultz, a biology professor at Penn, have finally figured out what's behind all the abnormal chromosomes. They used mice to show that aneuploidy is probably a result of poor chromosome cohesion. What's that? Well, first a mini-science lesson: When chromosomes replicate, they have to be held together. Molecules called cohesins do that job, allowing chromosomes to pair off correctly. Imagine two sticks as the chromosomes, and a rubber band binding them together as the cohesin. In normal cell division, one stick goes to one cell and one stick goes to another. But aneuploidy upends the normal path of cell division.

In a recent issue of Current Biology, Lampson and Schultz concluded that the increase in chromosomal disorders experienced by older women is largely related to a decrease in cohesin proteins, which diminish as a part of the aging process. Chromosomes in older eggs simply don't have enough of this protein, and that causes the chromosomes to do some unscripted acrobatics: Rather than heading off in the right direction toward two separate cells, they might both wind up attaching to one cell or another. It's during this delicate period that mistakes can result in chromosomal disorders, including Down syndrome.

The projection that half of 40-year-old women's eggs have chromosomal problems? It's probably a significant underestimate, since most aneuploidies abort early in pregnancy. “Most of the time, those bad eggs are really bad,” says Schultz. “They don't give rise to a child.”

While the research goes a long way toward explaining why older women have a tougher time delivering a healthy baby, it doesn't offer any solutions. “We can't come in with a magic bullet and make it better,” says Schultz. “The biological clock goes tick-tock once you start hitting 35. That's why it's easier for younger women to have children.”

One possibility might be to reload the eggs with cohesin. The protein is added to the chromosomes in egg cells when a baby girl is still in utero. “That cohesin has to last for 40 years or so, which is why it's so susceptible,” says Lampson. Even if it would be possible to inject cohesin into eggs, it's likely that older eggs wouldn't welcome the infusion. “It's one of the things we're thinking about,” says Lampson, “but we don't know exactly what to do.”

Still, it's a start, notes Schultz. “To fix something, you first need to know what's broken," he says.

Can a Veggie-Rich Diet Make You More Beautiful?

There are so many healthy reasons to eat vegetables that it feels redundant to keep enumerating them. But if a stronger immune system, cancer-fighting antioxidants and heart-healthy fiber aren't reason enough for some, perhaps we can appeal to their vanity: a study published in the journal Evolution and Human Behaviour found that eating foods high in carotenoids — a nutrient found in some fruits, leafy greens and root vegetables — gave them a healthy glow that rivaled a sun tan and made them more attractive in tests.

"We found that, given the choice between skin color caused by suntan and skin color caused by carotenoids, people preferred the carotenoid skin color," Dr. Ian Stephen, the study's lead researcher, now of the School of Psychology, University of Nottingham, Malaysia Campus, said in a statement. "So if you want a healthier and more attractive skin color, you are better off eating a healthy diet with plenty of fruit and vegetables than lying in the sun."

People with diets high in fruits and vegetables had demonstrably yellower skin, the researchers found. But the scientists weren't sure if the veggie glow would be perceived differently than one achieved by sitting in the sun. So they asked study participants to look at 51 different Caucasian faces and adjust the skin tones to the hues, ranging from those typical of a day in the sun to the glow from a carotenoid-rich diet, that they thought looked healthiest.



From left: suntanned, neutral, with carotenoid coloring (Courtesy of Ian Stephen, University of Nottingham)

Want the glow? Try upping your intake of carrots, tomatoes, sweet potatoes, bell peppers, cantaloupe, spinach and kale.

Depressed short interest is regularly a harbinger of an imminent slide in stocks

Stronger than expected economic data earlier this month had many believing that not only had we made our way out of the recession woods, but that we had actually arrived at the beaches of economic paradise.

Better than expected private payroll numbers, improving retail sales and small business confidence levels, and a climbing PPI all of these support the economy's recovery. Beyond the U.S., too, in the U.K., and China, manufacturing numbers have been strong, and German retail sales earlier this month surprised on the upside.

But is it so?
Had we actually arrived at the beaches of economic paradise?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics termed "an unprecedented rise" in long-term unemployment, i.e., things look very, very bad.  See below chart:

Also, consumer confidence levels dropped unexpectedly in December. Home prices continue to fall, the largest cities are seeing the biggest drops, 1.3% on average, over last month's report.  Millions of foreclosures are also coming to market and tight credit is still the major obstacle.  2010 will go down as the worst year for home sales in more than a decade.  And with mortgage rates continuing to go higher, the chances of a near-term turnabout are roughly zero. 

Consider, too, an important market internal: short interest.  The latest, mid-December reading shows overall short interest at levels lower than any time since the waning months of 2007.  Look here:
 

Elevated short interest levels are nearly always a precondition of a bull market, the opposite is also the case.  Depressed short interest is regularly a harbinger of an imminent slide in stocks.

Based on the longer-term phasing and valuation aspects, I belief that the advance out of the March 2009 low has been a bear market rally, this rally will ultimately prove to be a much longer-term bear market. Historically, Phase II declines are the most devastating and it is my belief that once this bear market rally has run its course, the Phase II decline will be far worse than what was seen between October 2007 and March 2009.

Don't be too greedy, just lighten your stocks holding when the market is still in a good shape, you may not have chance to get out of the bear gate when too many people are rushing out at the panic mode.