Thursday, September 9, 2010

I might cover part of my short holding tomorrow if the market is resilient.

The S&P 500 hold above the 1100 support, ended with a daily gain of 5.3 points, closed at 1104.18. Thanks to some upbeat economic data, Initial jobless claims fell more than expected and the trade balance narrowed. Stocks added gains Thursday, but the indexes ended off their intraday highs.

The economic data continues to come in a little bit better than expected. Investors are celebrating with the positive news everyday since last Friday. However, the rally seems lack of amp and the volume is anemic. we had a upside gap open today, but there was no follow through with this breakout. It seems to me that the gap we saw in this morning is an exhaustion gap. We had a run away gap on last Wednesday, continue gap on Friday, and today's gap seems fatigue to me. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ran into 200 days moving average and retracted today, and the 200 moving lines for SPX and COMP are a throw stone away. However, the market might want to run for a last gasp to 1115 or 1130 before surrender.

In the meantime it's risky for holding either long or short, nevertheless, the risk reward ratio is somewhat flavor the bears. It is much prudent to wait until SPX reach 1115 (200 days moving average) or 1130 (prior high, resistance) before adding any short. I still holding SPXU to short the current market. I might cover part of my short holding tomorrow if the market is resilient because one of my trading rule is not to hold heavy position through weekend.

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