Monday, August 30, 2010

I would like to see SPX retest 1010 low and rebound to confirm this short term bottom

The S&P 500 Index dropped 15.7 points, closed at 1048.92. Merger and acquisition news, stock buybacks and mixed economic data failed to lift stocks Monday. Instead equities fell hard and erased most of Friday's work. There's nothing to take us higher so we're continuing to go lower. What we're hoping for now is for some stability in the data to put a floor under stocks.

Last Friday we had somewhat of a reversal which caused many traders to think the market put in some sort of a bottom but today's price action quickly reversed back to the downside. If you did read my post on last Friday, you may foretell the movement and direction of the market today.

On last Friday I wrote, "In the meantime traders are in a dilemma. The action we saw today was a bullish sign and a reverse day is prerequisite for a bottom. Nevertheless, if you look at the daily chart, you will see that the waves count for this downtrend started on August is not finished yet. Therefore I will give a reasonable doubt to today's rally. I would like to see SPX retest 1010 low and rebound to confirm this short term bottom".

If I am right, market will retest the July 1010 low and finish the fifth wave down leg. Market may rally from there consider the current short term oversold level. This may be the last party bulls can enjoy before the slaughter come into existence.(If you want to see some more about this bear market, go to the bear market campus page) Watch the next support projection 1040, then 1017, 1002, 980, 943. Personally, I don't expect SPX will drop lower than 1000.

I will be a buyer if SPX retest 1010, or hit our projection targets 1017 and 1002 area with extreme sell off mode in 5, 15 and 60 minutes charts.

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