Market is searching a short term bottom and it will rise for any positive news

The S&P 500 Index moved fractionally higher by the close, tacking on 0.41 point, closed at 1049.33. Stocks were little changed at the end of a choppy session Tuesday. Technical support at the 1040 line helped the S&P 500 bounce back from an opening slide. However, many participants remain unwilling to jump back into stocks ahead of the monthly payrolls report on Friday.

Trading will probably remain volatile as investors await key economic reports due later this week, the market is full of bearish sentiment because investors have been focused on the outlook for the U.S. economy recently as the nation's growth has slowed. In particular, they are worried that the weak job market will continue to weigh on consumer spending

Current stock market creates an unpredictable situation this week since the heavy volume of the institutions will most likely be on the sidelines. Market is searching a short term bottom, it will rise for any positive news, including the government's closely watched monthly jobs numbers on Friday. It's hard to be long or short ahead of the non-farms payroll report. I will be a buyer and wait for a wash out day when SPX hit 1017, 1010 or 1002 and rebound.

I would like to see SPX retest 1010 low and rebound to confirm this short term bottom

The S&P 500 Index dropped 15.7 points, closed at 1048.92. Merger and acquisition news, stock buybacks and mixed economic data failed to lift stocks Monday. Instead equities fell hard and erased most of Friday's work. There's nothing to take us higher so we're continuing to go lower. What we're hoping for now is for some stability in the data to put a floor under stocks.

Last Friday we had somewhat of a reversal which caused many traders to think the market put in some sort of a bottom but today's price action quickly reversed back to the downside. If you did read my post on last Friday, you may foretell the movement and direction of the market today.

On last Friday I wrote, "In the meantime traders are in a dilemma. The action we saw today was a bullish sign and a reverse day is prerequisite for a bottom. Nevertheless, if you look at the daily chart, you will see that the waves count for this downtrend started on August is not finished yet. Therefore I will give a reasonable doubt to today's rally. I would like to see SPX retest 1010 low and rebound to confirm this short term bottom".

If I am right, market will retest the July 1010 low and finish the fifth wave down leg. Market may rally from there consider the current short term oversold level. This may be the last party bulls can enjoy before the slaughter come into existence.(If you want to see some more about this bear market, go to the bear market campus page) Watch the next support projection 1040, then 1017, 1002, 980, 943. Personally, I don't expect SPX will drop lower than 1000.

I will be a buyer if SPX retest 1010, or hit our projection targets 1017 and 1002 area with extreme sell off mode in 5, 15 and 60 minutes charts.

Health Benefits of Isoflavones

The consumption of soy products has many health benefits, including protection against breast cancer, prostate cancer, menopausal symptoms, heart disease and osteoporosis.

Many of the health benefits of soy are derived from its isoflavones. However some critics claim that isoflavones can increase the incidence of epithelial hyperplasia and cause goitre and hyperthyroidism. Isoflavones remain the subject of many scientific studies, as illustrated by the more than 1700 scientific publications mentioning isoflavones in their title or abstract. Most of these studies show that isoflavones may have some health benefit.

The chemical structure of isoflavones is very similar to that of our own estrogen. Because of this similarity in structure, they can interfere with the action of our own estrogen.

Certain cells in the body have estrogen receptors, special sites that allow estrogen to attach. When estrogen attaches to a cell’s estrogen receptor, estrogenic effects occur in the cell. Isoflavones latch onto estrogen receptors too, but produce weaker estrogenic effects. This leads to an interesting two-part action. When there is not enough estrogen in the body, isoflavones can stimulate cells with estrogen receptors and partly make up for the deficit. However, when there is plenty of estrogen, isoflavones may tend to block real estrogen from attaching to estrogen receptors, thereby reducing the net estrogenic effect. This may reduce some of the risks of excess estrogen (for example, breast and uterine cancer) while still providing some of estrogen's benefits (such as, preventing osteoporosis).

Isoflavones may reduce or activate the activity of estrogen. Isoflavones can compete with estrogen for the same receptor sites thereby decreasing the health risks of excess estrogen. They can also increase the estrogen activity. If during menopause the body's natural level of estrogen drops, isoflavones can compensate this by binding to the same receptor, thereby easing menopause symptoms as a result.

The best way to consume isoflavones is in the form soy or soyfoods, so you can benefit from other healthy components of soy. Soy contains many types of isoflavones, but the most beneficial are genistein and daidzein. The highest amounts of soy isoflavones can be found in soy nuts and tempeh. Another natural source of isoflavones is red clover.

Research in several areas of healthcare has shown that consumption of isoflavones may play a role in lowering risk for disease. They can fight disease on several fronts.

The following potential health benefits are attributed to isoflavones:

• Ease menopause symptoms - The benefits of soy go beyond reducing long-term cancer risk. Recent studies have found that soy isoflavones can reduce menopause symptoms such as hot flushes and increase bone density in women. Indeed, many menopausal and post-menopausal health problems may result from a lack of isoflavones in the typical Western diet. Although study results are not entirely consistent, isoflavones from soy or red clover may be helpful for symptoms of menopause. A study carried out by "Health Test" in 2004 investigated the prescription behaviour of 27 doctors for women with menopause symptoms. It showed that isoflavones were recommended twice (44%) as often as hormonal treatment (22%). The prescribed supplements were mainly based on the following plants: soy, black cohosh and hops.
  
  
• Reduce heart disease risk - Soy isoflavones also appear to reduce cardiovascular disease risk via several distinct mechanisms. Isoflavones inhibit the growth of cells that form artery clogging plaque. These arteries usually form blood clots which can lead to a heart attack. A review of 38 controlled studies on soy and heart disease concluded that soy is definitely effective for improving cholesterol profile. There is some evidence that isoflavones are the active ingredients in soy responsible for improving cholesterol profile.
  
  
• Protect against prostate problems - Isoflavones may be benificial for men's health because they may protect against enlargement of the male prostate gland. Studies show isoflavones slowed prostate cancer growth and caused prostate cancer cells to die. Isoflavones act against cancer cells in a way similar to many common cancer-treating drugs.
  
  
• Isoflavones improve bone health - Soy Isoflavones help in the preservation of the bone substance and fight osteoporosis. This is the reason why people in China and Japan very rarely have osteoporosis, despite their low consumption of dairy products, whereas in Europe and North America the contrary happens. Unlike estrogen, which helps prevent the destruction of bone, evidence suggests that isoflavones may also assist in creating new bone. Other studies are not entirely consistent, but evidence suggests that genistein and other soy isoflavones can help prevent osteoporosis.
  
  
• Reduce cancer risk - Isoflavones seem to be protect agains tumors because thet act against cancer cells in a way similar to many common cancer-treating drugs. Population-based studies show a strong association between consumption of isoflavones and a reduced risk of breast and endometrial cancer. Women who ate the most soy products and other foods rich in isoflavones reduced their risk of endometrial cancer by 54%. 

 

Isoflavones are natural plant hormones

 

Isoflavones can be found in many foods but the best known source is the soy bean (Glycine max). The soy isoflavones are responsible for most of the soy health benefits. The Soy bean is a plant cultivated as foodstuff whose health properties have recently been discovered. Thorough studies have revealed that the consumption of the soy beans have favourable effects on people's health. Another source of isoflavones is red clover. As opposed to soy beans, red clover is normally not eaten but the isoflavones are extracted in industrial processes and used to make isoflavones supplements.

 

Isoflavones are natural antioxidants

A recent study has demonstrated that isoflavones have potent antioxidant properties, comparable to that of the well known antioxidant vitamin E. The antioxidant powers of isoflavones can reduce the long-term risk of cancer by preventing free radical damage to DNA. Genistein is the most potent antioxidant among the soy isoflavones, followed by daidzein.

Ten Cholesterol Lowering Food Tips

Having high cholesterol puts you at increased risk of developing coronary heart disease. Combine high cholesterol with other risk factors, such as diabetes and high blood pressure, and your risk of heart disease increases even more. Many factors can cause high cholesterol, some of which you can do something about and others you cannot.

Cholesterol is a fatty substance that can harden and stick to your artery walls, causing them to narrow and result in a condition known as atherosclerosis. Clots can then form, further blocking the narrowed arteries, and causing a heart attack when blood can no longer pass through the narrowed arteries to supply oxygen to the heart muscle. The National Institutes of Health reports that more than 34 million American adults have high cholesterol (higher than 240 mg/dL).

High Cholesterol Risk Factors
Heredity, having family history of high cholesterol and heart disease, your age, and gender are all things that may put you at risk for developing high cholesterol. But a number of lifestyle choices can increase your risk, including:

• The food you eat. Many foods can drive up your LDL, or "bad" cholesterol level. Eating too much saturated fat, trans fatty acids (trans fats), and animal-based cholesterol found in meats, cheeses, and egg yolks contribute to high cholesterol and heart disease.
• Being overweight or obese. Having an unhealthy weight can increase LDL levels, reduce HDL, or "good" cholesterol, and increase your total cholesterol level.
• Not exercising. A lack of exercise contributes to your risk for high cholesterol and cardiovascular disease.
• Diabetes. Diabetes is a major risk factor for both heart disease and high cholesterol. 

Cholesterol lowering food in combination with a healthy fit lifestyle has been proven over and over again to be one of the most effective ways of lowering cholesterol naturally. More people than ever before have high cholesterol even with millions of dollars being spent each year to try and educate people on this problem.

Unfortunately, instead of focusing on such things as cholesterol lowering food the emphasis for dealing with this health problem has been on 'statin' drugs. Drugs are never a good idea and when it comes to the 'statins' it's even worse. So, how can you lower cholesterol naturally without taking risky prescription medication? As mentioned above using your diet to lower cholesterol with the help of cholesterol lowering food is a very good place to start.

There are of course other ways of lowering cholesterol naturally such as adding cholesterol lowering vitamins to your health regime, making exercise an important part of your life, etc. Before going any further it's important that you understand the difference between LDL cholesterol and HDL cholesterol. You always hear these terms repeated on the news but what's the difference between them?

In simplest terms HDL cholesterol is healthy for you. You body needs it. On the other hand LDL cholesterol is the bad guy. LDL helps to cause heart disease by allowing cholesterol to build up in your arteries.

Cholesterol lowering food tip#1

Sandwich's are good to eat for lunch or when you're in a rush. Use whole wheat bread or a pita with some either lean turkey, chicken, tuna or most other fish along with vegetables. Please avoid high cholesterol, processed meats such as hot dogs, bologna, and salami. Some condiments are ok to add to your sandwich, but avoid mayo.

Cholesterol lowering food tip #2.
As part of a good diet to lower cholesterol eat fish such as salmon. The wild red salmon varieties are better and healthier for you because they contain high levels of Omega-3 fatty acids (also known as Essential Fatty Acids - EFA). If you can't find a good source of salmon use an EFA supplement. These come as flax seed oil, fish oil or a combination of both.

Cholesterol lowering food tip #3.
Look at food labels and stay away from all foods containing Trans fats. Trans fats will increase the level of LDL cholesterol in your blood stream and decrease the good HDL cholesterol. Foods that contain trans fats include margarine, vegetable shortening, most processed foods, some types of peanut butter and foods that contain partially hydrogenated soybean oil.

Cholesterol lowering food tip #4.
Feel free to occasionally snack on different varieties of nuts. The best are walnuts, almonds, macadamia nuts, cashews, and pecans. While it's true that most nuts are high in fat, they contain good fat that your body needs.

Cholesterol lowering food tip #5.
Even though it's very tough for most people, try to keep a tight rein on the amount of desserts you eat each week. If you absolutely must have a desert after a meal try to eat only healthier ones such as angel food cake, graham crackers, Jell-O, and yogurt.

Cholesterol lowering food tip #6.
Include high fiber foods in your diet to lower cholesterol. Some good choices include whole wheat bread, oatmeal (not the high sugar flavored type), fruit, vegetables, beans, and certain cereals.

Cholesterol lowering food tip #7.
Always eat lean meat and use a grill or a barbeque to cook them. This way the harmful grease will just fall away.

Cholesterol lowering tip #8.
Salads are good, but most salad dressings, bacon bits, croutons, etc. aren't. Try to use olive oil, vinegar or lemon juice.

Cholesterol lowering tip #9.
As far as a diet to lower cholesterol is concerned, most fruits and vegetables being high in nutrients and antioxidants are very good. The best are: green peas, broccoli, cauliflower, apples, oranges, mangos, papaya, pineapple, tomato, garlic, onions, spinach, water chestnuts, bananas, apricots, blueberries, and kiwi.

Cholesterol lowering tip #10.
Fast foods and fast food restaurants should be avoided at all times. Yes a lot of burger joints are now offering "healthier" choices but why get tempted?

As mentioned earlier in this article there are many other ways to lower your cholesterol, but sticking to a diet to lower cholesterol is a very good place to start.

If you want to take dietary supplement, try Berberine, Hawthorn, Niacin, Resveratrol, Quercetin and Momordica. 

You may not gain anything even though you know the direction of the market.

Stocks bolted higher after a volatile session Friday. A better-than-expected reading in Q2 GDP growth, although slower than in the first quarter, boosted equities early on, but things took a turn for the worse after Fed Chaiman expressed concern over the weakening economic recovery, also Intel's revenue warning added to worries. Still, stocks found their footing shortly after 35 minutes trading and spent the rest of the session working higher.

The market is oversold and it is starving for something decent to look at. Once again, technical analysis and charts seem to be the most dependable day trading tools. They filter the noise from the news and reports.

I mention yesterday that market might go through a wash out today. And I also reminded my readers to grab this day trade opportunity to buy at the low when all the reports came out with an extreme sell off mode. Believe it or not, I didn't long any stock today, actually I didn't enter any trade today because I was sleeping when the action is happened.

I woke up an hour after market opened and SPX was rebounded from the low of 1039.7 to 1053. I talked to myself, "Oh! my god, I miss 13 points of the run?!" Market was overbought at that moment, I had to wait for the market retraced. The first leg up 1040-1055, +15 points. When you see market rebound so strong with first leg up 15 points, you need to catch the retracement level at 23.6%, or 38.2% instead of 50%. I put my buy limited order at 1049.27 which is 38.2% RT, Unfortunately, market only went down to 1051.46 which is the 23.6% RT and rebound. I missed the first golden opportunity to enter today's rally.

I missed the second entry point when market topped out at 1060 and retracted. It was 20 points run from the low 1040 to the high 1060. I placed a buy limit order at 1052.36 which is the 38.2% RT. Again, market was so bullish that it rebounded at 23.6% RT 1055.28.

Today is one of the day bulls and bears draw a very clear line. If you don't long today's market, you had better step aside. There is no way you can short a market like this strong. You can always tell how strong is the market in one day by reading the first leg rebound from the oversold low. Like today, 1040 to 1055, +15 points. By the first leg rally we can make a projection for this run. They are 1065, 1070, 1076, 1079, 1085, 1094. The first target was hit at 1065, which is the 61.8% of the first leg, not even 100% of the first leg which is 1070. I can't see any difficulty for market to hit 1070 and fill the gap few days ago.

In the meantime traders are in a dilemma. The action we saw today was a bullish sign and a reverse day is prerequisite for a bottom. Nevertheless, if you look at the daily chart, you will see that the waves count for this downtrend started on August is not finished yet. We got only two waves down, that mean the rally we are seeing now is the fourth wave, we need one more leg down to finish the 5th wave. Therefore I will give a reasonable doubt to today's rally. I would like to see SPX retest 1010 low and rebound to confirm this short term bottom.

I want to see the SPX retest the July low 1010 and rebound before adding any long position.

The S&P 500 Index was 8.1 points lower, closed at 1047.22 and breaching support at 1050 for the first time since June. Stocks turned lower Thursday despite a bigger-than-expected drop in weekly jobless claims. The downside reversal also erased Wednesday's gains. It is the fifth loss in six sessions. The final drop not only offset the prior session's gain but left stocks to settle at a new monthly low.

Economic gloom continued to hang over investors. When things are as bad as they are, any news like today's jobs data showing a slight improvement helps. But we're still in a mess, the macro situation is deteriorating in the U.S. and the Fed is not ready to take the next step, well, actually, there is not too much Fed can do to rejuvenate the economy at the current situation. In economic sense, we call it economic cycle, and we call it market cycle in stock market. Next cycle will exist only if we could find the bottom and rebound. And I think it's going to continue to be a rocky road for the market until we see some gradual momentum.

Tomorrow we have second-quarter gross domestic product due early morning. GDP, the broadest gauge of economic activity, is expected to show the economy grew much less than previously estimated. Economists expect the government to revise second-quarter GDP to 1.4%, If it comes in as expected, we may not see much movement since we seem to already be pricing that in, but if you have a number below 1%, the market could get really ugly.

Tomorrow may be the wash out day if the GDP report is a ugly one. I want to see the SPX retest the July low 1010 and rebound before adding any long position. Couple days ago I posted the projection of this sell off. We have reached 1063, 1041, the next targets will be 1018, 1004, 982, 945. Consider the market's short term oversold, I believe the market will bounce at support 1018 or 1004 at a extreme sell off mode. I will watch the 5, 15, 60 minutes charts, if market rebound at these support levels, don't miss this day trading opportunity.

Technical analysis prove to be the best short term, day trading tool

S&P500 was up 3.5 points, closed at 1055.33. Stocks finished higher Wednesday after spending most of the day in the red, following another round of disappointing housing news. I think today's market action is a sign that they had priced in the bad news, and this has allowed the rest of the market to come back. Stocks are extraordinarily cheap and oversold at this point, but the question is, are they sufficiently cheap to discount the economic weakness?

Yesterday I posted, "it's a good opportunity for day trading. Buy any panic sell off and short any extreme complacency. Watch support 1041, 1019". Today market gapped down and have an early sell off down to our 1041 support, actual low 1039.83. I bought UPRO at 117 and sold it at 119.5 when SPX hit 1050. I should wait for 1060 resistance to sell my stock, but I was unable to stay in front of my computer, so I just sold it at the first resistance 1050.

Technical analysis again prove to be the best short term bullet prove trading tool. Even though we have a very bad housing data today, market still can recover from 1040 support. I think market is searching a short term bottom, I want to see it retest the 1020-1010 area and rebound. Actually, 1040 seems to be a reasonable low, but you know, I always looking for the perfect point to enter.

Market probably will fill the gap at 1065-1070 area, therefore, the next resistance watch 1065-1070, then 1080, 1100.

Watch support 1041,1019, resistance 1065-1070

The S&P 500 Index finished the day at 1051.87, 15.5 points lower, but is rested above potential support at the 1050 level. Wall Street learned this morning that existing homes sales plunged 27.2% in July, marking their largest-ever monthly decline. Meanwhile, inventories of unsold homes swelled to 3.98 million in July, representing the largest stockpile in more than a decade. Bears took this negative news and sent the S&P500 to the low of 1046.68 today, it almost hit our second projection target 1041 today.

Market is very fragile right now. Weak economic data keep injecting into the mind of investors. There isn't any positive and bullish catalyst to stimulate this market at this moment. Market is oversold right now, it's a good opportunity for day trading. Buy any panic sell off and short any extreme complacency. You can make some quick money by shorting the gap up open market yesterday and buying the gap down open market today.

Watch support 1041, 1019, I will be a buyer and day trade these two supports tomorrow if there is an extreme sell off and rebound from there. Then, I will take profit when market run to 1065-1070 (prior resistance and fill the gap).

Sell/Short any extreme rally at critical resistances is the best strategy right now

The S&P 500 Index settled just below the recent support 1,070 neighborhood, with the index down  4.3 points, closed at 1067.36. Merger and acquisition activity boosted stocks at the beginning of the session, but technical resistance was quick to send the broader market back to the neutral line. Trade was then range bound until a late session slip left stocks to settle at their lows. Economic data has been showing gradual signs of weakness there's still an overshadowing concern that will likely keep any rally narrow.

Technically, market is oversold, but not extreme oversold, it's risky to bet on either bulls or bears. In the mean time I will only accumulate short position for swing trading, that mean I will  hold it for a week or longer. However, I will only day trading the upside market and will not hold any long position overnight. I will wait for the rebound of this oversold market. Next resistances will be 1088, 1100, 1117, 1130, 1140-1150.

Base on the seasonal factor (August, September and October are the bearish months) and the recent economic data, the best strategy right now is to Sell/Short any extreme rally at critical resistances.

For day traders want to pick up some quick money. We may have one or two more sell off days to bring this market to a extreme oversold mode. At that time you buy it at the critical support levels will have a pretty good risk reward ratio. I project the sell off  from the high of 1128 to the first leg low of 1069, then I have the following projection targets. 1063, 1041, 1019, 1005, 982, 946.

Two days ago, market tested 61.8% down trend fibonacci projection at 1063 and rebounded. The next support will be 1041 which is the 100% from the last leg down from 1128 to 1069. 1141 is very strong because it was tested two times on May and June. I am very sure the market will rebound tomorrow or Wednesday if 1041 is hit with extreme oversold mode. Hopefully, I can day trade when this happen.

The patient investor can gain a huge advantage by doing nothing

Stocks closed off their worst levels of the session on Friday, bottoming around midday and moving higher throughout most of the afternoon trade. during the session, three of the four major indexes breached their August low. The S&P 500 Index gave up 3.94 points, closed at 1071.69

Light trading in August has kept the market bouncing in a narrow range. traders were desperately seeking some kind of bullish catalyst. Today's low 1063.91 may be a good short term entry point for the bulls. Too bad, I am a bear camp supporter, I will only day trading the upward market.

I still believe the market will make one more attempt to test the 1130 area, or 1140-1150 area if there is bullish catalyst. This is base on the waves counting, It seems missing the 5th wave. Today's market closed above 1070 is a plus for the bulls, If market can hold 1070 and rebound, I may have a chance to short this market with better price. However, With the major indices all below their respective 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages, and downside volume picking up, the bear case has been made considerably stronger.

Even though the trading ranges of the indices are still intact and buyers could hold prices above total breakdown levels, investors would be wise to stand aside and once again wait for Mr. Market to tell you his future direction. This is no time for wild bullish speculation or even for heavy shorting since a major support zone is now very close. The patient investor can gain a huge advantage by doing nothing.

Cholesterol and your health

Basically, the lower the better! Did you know 1 in 2 Australian Adults are affected by cholesterol! What’s scary is that only 1 in 5 think they are affected.

But what exactly is cholesterol?
It can be so confusing especially when you hear about ‘good and bad cholesterol’ and then ‘total’ cholesterol – what is the difference?  Isn’t it all the same?

Cholesterol is a waxy substance which is found naturally in our blood – in fact it is made by our liver but we also receive a small amount from the food we eat. Without cholesterol our bodies could not perform a number of important body processes like making hormones and vitamin D.

Having a low level of cholesterol our blood is natural and healthy but having a high cholesterol level can be dangerous. ‘Bad’ cholesterol gets stuck to the walls of blood vessels, making them harder and narrower so less blood can flow through and around the body. Eventually this spells big trouble for your heart, often leading to heart attack and stroke. ‘Good’ cholesterol on the other hand, takes cholesterol from body tissues back to the liver for re-processing and elimination. To help keep your heart healthy it is important to keep your ‘bad’ cholesterol low (known as ‘LDL cholesterol’) and your ‘good’ cholesterol high (known as ‘HDL cholesterol’).

So what about total cholesterol?
Total cholesterol is a figure made up from the bad (LDL) and the good (HDL) cholesterol levels. The Heart Foundation recommends the cholesterol level for the general public is ideally should be below 5.5mmol/L or lower. For people at higher risk of heart problems, they suggest a cholesterol level of less than 4.0 mmo/l. Basically, the lower the better.

How do I lower my cholesterol?

Small changes to diet and lifestyle can make a big difference to your cholesterol level such as:

• Avoiding ‘bad’ fats and/or reducing saturated fats, limiting other animal fats like cheese, cream, full cream milks and yoghurts and fatty meats. Choose lean meats and low fat dairy products instead. Also cutting down on biscuits, pastries and the like too.
• Choosing ‘good’ fats. Replacing bad fats with polyunsaturated vegetable oils such as sunflower oil and polyunsaturated margarine spreads will have a positive effect on cholesterol levels.
• Eating more vegetables – including 2 serves of fruits and 5 serves of vegetables everyday and include wholegrain foods in your daily diet.
• Having a healthy lifestyle by aiming for a healthy body weight, quitting smoking, including physical exercise.
• Using a plant sterol margarine spread will also help lower cholesterol absorption.

I would urge you however, if you have any concerns about your cholesterol levels or heart health, your first point of contact should always be your doctor. Some people have cholesterol levels that require medication as well as diet and lifestyle changes and your doctor will need to advise you. Keeping a nice close eye on your cholesterol levels is highly recommended because they change over time. when women go through menopause and their estrogen levels drop, their cholesterol increases!

If you need some dietary supplement, try Berberine, Hawthorn, Niacin, Resveratrol, Quercetin and Momordica.

Low levels of vitamin E increase risk of declining physical function

How are the levels of vitamin E in your bloodstream? New research published in the Journal of the American Medical Association finds that low levels of this important vitamin may increase the risk of declining physical function as you age.

"Maintaining independence of older persons is a public health priority," according to Yale researchers. "And identifying the factors that contribute to decline in physical function is needed to prevent or postpone the disablement process."

"Low plasma levels of vitamin E are associated with subsequent decline in physical function," said the study's lead author, Benedetta Bartali, a nutritionist and a Brown-Coxe postdoctoral fellow at Yale University's School of Medicine.

"As an antioxidant, vitamin E may prevent or reduce the propagation of free radicals in our body, and this may help to reduce muscle or DNA damage and the development, for example, of atherosclerosis and other pathologic conditions," Bartali said.

Because poor nutrition has been associated with physical decline in older people, Bartali and her colleagues randomly selected almost 700 adults over age 65 from an ongoing study in Tuscany, Italy. They reviewed blood tests to ascertain vitamin levels and reviewed data from physical function exams completed at the start of the study and at the three-year follow-up.

After adjusting the data to account for other factors that could contribute to physical decline, such as smoking or a lack of physical activity, the researchers found two factors were significantly associated with a greater chance of experiencing physical decline—age and low levels of vitamin E.

Being older than 81 years increased the odds of physical decline by 84%, and low levels of vitamin E in people between the ages of 70 and 80 increased the odds of physical decline by 60%, according to the study.

Watch 1100 up and 1069 down

Stocks fell, erasing a three-day gain. The S&P 500 slipped 18.5 points, to 1075.63, its lowest close in a month. The negative news came fast and furious this morning, Investors were hit with a triple bad economic news today: manufacturing still stinks, more people are jobless and confidence in the future is less than hoped.

I long SPX in this morning when the selloff slowed and the stock market approached its monthly low support 1070, technical support helped stocks to stop their losses. Nevertheless, pressure persisted into the close and stocks failed to squeeze higher in the final hour. I bought UPRO at 127.5 and sold at 128.5, my target is 129.87, but market was so weak all day long, so I decided to take a small gain and avoid the 'bear dance'.

The index is now close second consecutive weekly below its 10-week moving average.
Unless we see sustainable job creation, consumption will be below expectations and investors and traders will focus on economic growth. Technically, many of the indices are forming a ‘horn’ or ‘broadening top’ — an unusual but highly accurate formation most often seen at market tops.

Next resistances, 1100, 1115, 1130, 1140-1150. Support 1069 is very critical, if it is broken, the bears will take the chance to step up. In the mean time, watch 1100 up and 1069 down.

Market needs some catalysts to reach 1140-1150

Stocks bounced back from early weakness to end higher Wednesday. But the market trimmed a chunk of gains after encountered technical resistance. For the second straight session the 1100 line kept a cap on the S&P 500, but the index still managed to make a modest gain despite a lack of catalysts. After starting out the day lower, The S&P 500 inched up 2 points to 1094

Market was up three days after Monday's long tail candlestick. If market are moving as I was predicted, it will fill the 1120 gap and keep trending up until the 5th wave rally is finished. I will be glad to see SPX hit 1140-1150 with extreme buying mode, that's the flash point market will create spark between bulls and bears. At that moment, my friends, you had better hold cash, or short if you are aggressive traders because the phase II bear market may appear sooner than you expect.

I expect the SPX take out July low 1010 before the Sept/Oct period over.

Broad buying in light volume gave stocks strong gains, but the effort failed to take stocks through a key resistance level. S&P 500 runs into resistance at 1100 line. Stocks performed robust gains for the entire session. They finished with their best percentage gain in two weeks, strength actually faded into the close. The late drift came after the S&P 500 failed to penetrate the 1100 line. It did manage to close firmly above its 50-day moving average of 1088, however.

The S&P 500 Index ended the day up 13.2 points, closed at 1092.54, after peaking at 1100 in afternoon trading. This region could prove to be a stubborn technical roadblock during the short term; not only does 1100 represent round-number resistance, but the SPX's 10-day and 20-day moving averages are forming a bearish cross near 1105.

Internal indicators are oversold, but not at the extremes of May or early July. August, September and October are the most bearish months for stock market. The path of least resistance is "DOWN". Since I missed the best chance to short this market at prior high at 1128, I need more patient to wait for the market to come to me. Hopefully, the next few sessions will boost up the market near or exceed the prior top.

It may be the last chance for you to sell your long holding if the market will continue its last gasp of rally in next few days. Next resistances will be the 200 days moving average 1116, and the prior resistance 1120-1125. We have to watch the market reaction at these price levels very careful. If market hits this resistance and retract, then you can tell for sure market will enter into a bearish mode. And I also expect the SPX take out July low 1010 before the Sept/Oct period over.

Fibonacci retracement is one of the powerful and accurate day trading tools.

The S&P 500 Index recovered from an intraday low to a gain of 0.1 point, closed at 1079.38. Monday did not disappoint bulls, even with the market opening lower the market found footing early on and moved higher. The S&P 500 bounced up from its opening low in the 1070 area to make its way back to its two-day consolidation range highs in the 1080 to 1085 zone.

Yesterday I mentioned 1070 as the next support level. It is the 50% fib retracement level from the low of 1010 to the high of 1128. Too bad, I couldn't day trade today or I would be a big buyer at todays low 1069.49. well, at least we can prove fibonacci retracement is one of the powerful and accurate day trading tools.

If market can stabilize at the current level, it still has a chance to reach my target 1140-1150. However, there are some hurdles market need to deal with before reaching there. First resistance 50 days moving average 1087, second resistance 200 days moving average 1116, then the prior critical resistance 1125-1130.

I still believe market will take one more spike to the top in order to finish the 5th wave rally. 1140-1150 is the price I want to add up my bear portfolio. I am here to remind you that don't trust any rally because we are in a long term bear market. I will grab the profit potential by day trading any rally but will not hold any long position overnight, on the other hand I am accumulating short at any short term market top on extreme overbought mode.

Stocks extended their losing streak Friday after a seesaw session. Friday brought stocks their fourth straight loss, which left the S&P 500 3.8% lower for the week. Data continues to drive the action. The S&P 500 Index lower by 4.4 points, closed at 1079.2, Unfortunately, the SPX ended south of intraday support at the 1,080 level.

Longer term, there's a downside washout building, but this should only happen after a decent rally. An important peak is due around August 20-24. However, any new lows next week, and the top could be pushed back several days.

Next supports watch 1070, 1055-1050. I will keep my eyes open and see how the market can reach 1140-1150 in this gloomy sentiment market.

L-Arginine Lowers Blood Pressure, Reduces Inflammation

In the past, intravenous administration of the amino acid L-arginine has resulted in a substantial reduction in blood pressure in healthy adults and in patients with vascular disease. Now researchers have found that oral administration of L-arginine can yield the same effects. Plus, the orally administered L-arginine also lowers damaging homocysteine levels in the blood, another factor in cardiovascular health.

The endothelium—the cells lining the blood vessels—are critical for regulating blood pressure and blood flow. Healthy endothelial cells protect against heart attack and stroke and are critical for maintaining a high-energy, vital metabolism. Disease or injuries to the endothelial cells cause inflammation, which is an important marker of cardiovascular disease. Stress and high cholesterol promote inflammation.

Researchers from Penn State University found that oral L-arginine supplements lowered blood pressure and homocysteine in middle-aged men with high cholesterol who were subjected to stress. They concluded that L-arginine supplements might be useful for lowering blood pressure and inflammation in the cells lining the bloodstream.

Anthocyanins May Support Improved Cholesterol Levels

Increased intakes of antioxidant anthocyanins may improve levels of HDL (good) and LDL (bad) cholesterol, according to results of a new human study involving 120 people.

Consumption of berry-derived anthocyanin supplements resulted in a 13.7% increase in levels of HDL cholesterol and a 13.6% reduction in levels of LDL cholesterol, according to findings published in the American Journal of Clinical Nutrition.

Chinese scientists from Sun Yat-Sen University randomly assigned 120 people aged between 40 and 65 with abnormal blood lipid levels (dyslipidemia) to receive either a daily dose of 320 mg of anthocyanins or placebo for 12 weeks.

The study builds on earlier results from animal studies, which showed beneficial effects of the antioxidant compounds on lipid levels.

Using a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial design, the Chinese researchers studied the effects of a twice-daily dose of 160 mg anthocyanins on the lipid levels of the participants.

After 12 weeks of supplementation, HDL cholesterol levels increased by almost 14% in the anthocyanin group, compared to a rise of only 2.8% in the placebo group. Furthermore, LDL cholesterol levels decreased by 13.6% in the anthocyanin group, compared to an increase of 0.6% in the placebo group.

The removal of cholesterol from cells, the so-called cellular cholesterol efflux, was found to increase by 20% in the anthocyanin group, compared to 0.2% in the placebo group.

In terms of the potential mechanism, the activity of a protein called plasma cholesteryl ester transfer protein (CETP) was studied. CETP works by collecting triglycerides from LDL and exchanging them for cholesteryl esters from HDL, and also the reverse.

Supplementation with anthocyanins was found to reduce the activity of CETP by 6.3%, while CETP activity fell by only 1.1% in the placebo group, researchers said. "The change in HDL cholesterol was negatively correlated with the change in CETP activity," they wrote.

"The change in LDL cholesterol was positively correlated with the change in CETP mass," they added.

"Anthocyanin supplementation in humans improves LDL and HDL cholesterol concentrations and enhances the cellular cholesterol efflux to serum," wrote the researchers. "These benefits may be due to the inhibition of CETP," they concluded.

Did you lighten your long investment ?

The S&P 500 Index surrendered 5.9 points, finishing its second straight session beneath its 200-day moving average , closed at 1083.61. Disappointment over the Initial jobless claims data drove the S&P 500 to an opening loss of more than 1% and below its 50-day moving average for the first time in about three weeks. Despite several attempts, the S&P 500 was never able to break back above its 50-day moving average near 1088.

Market gapped down this morning, all the indicators were extremely oversold. We had a gapped down sell off day yesterday, today's gapped down panic open gave me an opportunity to long this market. After five minutes, market rebounded from the low. I bought UPRO right away at 129 and set the stop loss at 127.5. At 11:30, I sold all of them at 132.5 with the five waves rally finished. It was very tough for market to break through the 50 days moving average at 1087 provided all the economic news are so negative today.

As I mentioned yesterday, market will lose stream if 1084 is broken, now we have 50 days moving average 1088 broken too. In addition to that, the trendline of this rally start from July is broken also. If I tell you to long this market, you must think that I am crazy. The true is, I still waiting the market to hit 1140-1150.

If the market start rebound from here, it still has a chance to start the last leg fifth wave rally. However, it is unwise to long the current market consider the longer bearish perspective. Therefore, I will wait for the 1040-1050 to add on my short positions instead of long this last leg rally at the current price level. Nevertheless, If you are a day trader, you may want to grab the upward profit potential provided you can watch the market real time.

If you did read my earlier posts, you should able to lighten your long investment in time. For people not so familiar with stock market, but holding their retirement as mutual fund. Here is my advise: "lighten your investment as soon as possible."

S&P500 1084 must hold or this rally will lose stream

Stocks slid to close sharply lower Wednesday after a report showed the U.S. trade gap widened, and foreign data to give a doubt on overseas demand for American goods. S&P 500 fell 32 points, to close at 1,089.47.

Now is the critical moment for the market to make a up-or-down direction for this rally since July, To maintain this rally, market has to bounce at 1084.52 which is the 61.8% retracement level from the low of 1056.88 to the recent high of 1129.24. The next support for the market is 50 days moving average 1087.57, about two points below today's close.

I really want to see the market finish the fifth wave rally at 1140-1150 before adding my short position, we still have a chance to see the final leg of this rally tomorrow if the market bounce at 1087 or 1084.

If you are my blog's loyal reader, you know I lean on the bear camp, In long term I believe the market will start the phase II bear market since 2007 as long as it establish the secondary high below the last high 1220 and break down the low of 1010 on July. However, in a short term, if the market can hold 1084 and rebound, there is possibility for the finally run of this rally.

Just watch 1087 and 1084 tomorrow, I may long this market if these supports are hold and rebound with extreme sell off mode.

Get ready for the bear season- September & October

The S&P 500 Index ended on a dip of 6.7 points. It briefly dipped below its 200-day moving average on an intraday basis, but eventually managed a seventh consecutive close above this key moving average.

Market spend more than average time on this final leg consolidation. The last six trading days the market was going nowhere. It's not a good sign for a healthy uptrend rally. As I mention on yesterday's post. If you are still holding your long position, you need to set a tight stop. Seasonally, the closer we get to September and October, the weaker performance the market will be. If market doesn't grab the last chance this week or next week the latest, I doubt the market can go any further.

Although the market shows the sign of weakness, I still want to see it finishing the final run of the uptrend which is my target 1150-1170 with extreme overbought mode. For longer term investors, you can add up your short portfolio now, and average up until it reach the targer 1150-1170.

Remember to set your stop loss and don't bet your farm on this. For my longer term portfolio, I will set my stop loss at 1180-1190, and I will use half of my trading capital to bet on this phase II bear run.

Time is ticking, market needs to run its final leg for this rally

The S&P 500 gained 6 points to end at 1127.79, Stocks ended higher Monday as investors signaled modest optimism in the economic recovery, ahead of a highly anticipated statement from the Federal Reserve on Tuesday. August is historically a down month for the market with low trading volume and many traders staying on the sidelines.

Market spent 5 of last 6 days bouncing between 1120 and 1130. It will make a decision either up or down. Time is running out for my prediction which is market will top out at around 1150 to 1170 by 15th to the end of August. I suggest people lighten their stocks holding on the way up of this rally, it may be the last chance they can escape the phase II of this on going bear market since the end of 2007.

In the mean time, if you still holding your profitable long, you should keep holding it with tight stop. if you want to buy, the risk is too high and the profit margin is too low, the risk reward ratio is surely against you. If you want to short, you may want to wait a bit longer with your patient, 1140-1150 with extreme overbought signals will give me more confidence.

Bulls may get back momentum after Friday's run

The S&P 500 Index closed at 1121.64, down 4.2 points on Friday. Stocks dropped dramatically in the wake of a disappointing nonfarm payrolls report. The major market indexes all tumbled to heavy losses by midday, but the bulls proved their strength  by switching into bargain-hunting mode in afternoon trading.

Market looks bullish to me in short term. I will wait for the short order at 1040-1050 resistance. Actually, 1030 is the first hurdle market needs to face in the near future. 

Low Doses of Resveratrol May Help Fight Diabetes

Resveratrol, a chemical found in the skin of red grapes and in red wine, improved the sensitivity of mice to insulin in a study conducted by researchers at the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Shanghai. The result could lead to new treatments for type 2 diabetes, in which human cells lose their sensitivity to insulin.

The study showed that resveratrol activates an enzyme called SIRT1. This enzyme, in turn, suppresses the activity of a molecule called PTP1B, which ordinarily works to decrease insulin activity. SIRT1 levels were reduced in the animals’ insulin-resistant cells. Increasing SIRT1 activity with resveratrol improved insulin sensitivity by acting on PTP1B.

"When you suppress PTP1B, insulin activity improves," Young-Bum Kim, an assistant professor of medicine at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston said in an editorial accompanying the publication of the study in the journal Cell Metabolism.

One of the most striking findings of the study was that much lower levels of resveratrol than in previous trials were able to increase the animals’ sensitivity to insulin. Janice M. Zabolotny, an instructor in medicine at Beth Israel Deaconess and co-author of the editorial said: "This paper is different from previous reports in that lower doses were effective."

A statement by Qiwei Zhai, lead author of the study, recommended caution to resveratrol enthusiasts, noting that those who have been drinking red wine might "think about drinking less." Previous studies had indicated that a human would have to drink about 120 liters of red wine in a day to get the benefits seen in animals. The new results reduce that amount to a still-substantial three liters. "An even better option may be to find other natural foods enriched with resveratrol or foods supplemented with resveratrol," Zhai said.

Niacin Protective against Dementia in Aging

Taking niacin may help protect patients against Alzheimer's Disease and other forms of cognitive decline according to the results of a recent study. A research team followed 3,718 participants in the Chicago Health and Aging Project for six years and tracked their niacin intake and mental status via food frequency questionnaires and testing of cognitive functioning at three-year intervals. The subjects were 65 and older and did not have Alzheimer's Disease when the study began.

Scientists tested a random sample of 815 subjects, 131 of whom had developed Alzheimer's. When the niacin intake of the sample was examined, it was found that subjects who ranked in the top three-fifths of the sample's niacin consumption through supplements and foods had a 70% lower adjusted risk of developing the disease than those in the lowest sample. Even when the vitamin was obtained from food alone, the protective benefit was similar.

Cognitive decline was examined for all of the subjects and niacin was found to slow the process; this association was even stronger when the analysis excluded patients who had cardiovascular disease, low initial cognitive function scores, or less than 12 years of education. Subjects who consumed the most niacin had only 44% of the decline of those with the lowest intake of the vitamin.

Social Security trust fund will be exhausted by 2037

Stocks fell as an unexpected jump in American jobless claims, traders concern the economic rebound is slowing. S&P500 slipped 1.43 points to 1,125.81. The jobless claims number tell us that employers lack the confidence to expand their production because they’re uncertain how much momentum is out there.

Social Security will reach its tipping point this year. For the first time in nearly 30 years, the system will pay out more benefits than it receives in payroll taxes both this year and next, the government officials who oversee Social Security said on Thursday. The trustees report also said the Social Security trust fund will be exhausted by 2037.

Is that unbelievable to you? I thought Social Security fund is the saving we add up from every pay check, and we should able to enjoy our retirement with it. It just like telling you that the bank will exhausted or bankrupt in the future by the time you depositing your money (day after day). But, you have no choice because there is only one bank in US and it is compulsory.

well, I guess I have to work harder on my trading business instead of relying on Social Security. I still waiting for the extreme buying mode happen at 1140-1150, so that I can place my short order. Market is in a narrow trading range last three days. Be very careful, never hold your long or short position overnight when the market with so narrow trading range. It's very risky because it will go either way for some news or reports.

Trading is the combination of art and science

The biggest news today is from Warren Bufett. MarketWatch news -- "Berkshire Hathaway Chairman Warren Buffett said Wednesday that 40 of America's richest people publicly pledged to give away at least half their money to charity, a move that could pump about $60 billion into the world of philanthropy". Frankly, I really want to be part of that, only if I have that much of money.

S&P500 index rose 6.78 points, closed at 1127.24. Stocks rose today on good economic data and upbeat earnings reports. The trend is higher and Tuesday was an inside day (traded within the range of Monday).  The market took out the low end of the range on Wednesday and reversed to close above the high end of the inside day.  This leads to a positive setup for Thursday, especially if the Wednesday high is taken out.

This type of pattern can also lead to a sell opportunity if Wednesday's high holds and the low on Tuesday is taken out.  This is often a very reliable trade, as those who went short on Tuesday will be defending that high and new long will likely sell if the lows are taken out.

 I see a possible wedge forming on the daily charts. Volume has been steadily declining on the rally from early July, which adds to the reliability of a wedge. The up trendline will have to be broken before a short trade can be placed.  This could be a great shorting opportunity or the market could continue the same old trick- climb higher on low volume. Stay with the flow until it changes.

when I dealing with day to day errand, I take risk, trading stocks take risk too, but the positive side is I can control risk to a minimum level. For example, if I want to short the current market, I have two way to do it.

Firstly, I can place my short order at SPX 1140-1150 area and place the stop loss at around 1155-1160. Secondly, I can place a sell stop order right below the trendline support which is around 1100 and cover it when it drop down to 1185 which is the 50 days moving average support.

Now, we take a look at the pro and con of two methods.

The first one I short when the market is on its way up, a little disadvantage, but remember, I always place a short order at a critical resistance area. That mean the successful rate is very high, also I will place a protective buy stop loss order right after the short order is triggered so as to limit the loss and protect the capital.

The second method is a lot safer because I short when the market is falling, the risk is very low but the profit is way lower than the first method.

Method one's profit potential is much higher than method two. If I short at 1140, market drop to 1100, I gain 30 points. With method two, I short at 1100 and cover at 1085, the gain is 15 points.

Of course, there are some more factors we have to consider, like the risk reward ratio, that is how much you are willing to sacrifice in order to earn those points. As I always say, trading is an art and it also a very accurate science.

I think I am talking too much about method one and two, because after spending too much time to talk about them I will still using method one. Tomorrow I will place my short order at 1140 again.

Waiting market to hit 1140-1150

The S&P 500 Index down 5.4 points, closed at 1120.46. Market is digesting the 27 points gain on Monday and the high 1127 on Monday may act as a temporary pause (June resistance 1131). Nonetheless, I still believe market will head to my target 1140-1150, as well as the ultimate target 1165-1175 if the momentum is at extreme mode. We are in the third wave of this rally, market need to retract some points first before heading to those high. I am waiting the market to hit 1140-1150 to place my short order.

Yesterday I posted my bearish view about this market, and I also pointed out that the phase II bear market will be here if the market act as I predicted. On the other side if the market want to prove I am wrong, it needs to fulfill some requirement.

What is needed now for an intermediate broad market turn north is that all of the key indices — Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq — must break above their 200-day moving averages, as well as the June 21 high, before their trend changes. Additionally,S&P 500 must breach the close of Jan. 18 and 19 at 1,150. In the mean time I really doubt that this move will result in a major market reversal although all of the above indices did break  their 200-days moving average. The long-term trend is still down, the intermediate trend is still neutral, and the near-term trend is up.

I will keep watching the market movement everyday, I am curious to see how the current economy with high unemployment, high federal budget deficit, high nation debt, high municipal debt, low consumer spending, low government spending, and low investment spending can save this country from recession so fast so soon.

Lighten your stocks holding on the way up of the rally

The S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,125.86) wrapped up a solid session by adding 24.3 points, to score a daily close above its 200-day moving average for only the second time since June. However, this break out is different than the one you saw on June. This break out happened after a four-day retracement in the third wave rally. Rally always gain more momentum after recuperate from a retracement. I am sure the momentum will bring this rally to a higher level. How high?

If you did read my 6/2/2010 and 7/11/2010  posts, you know I lean on bear camp. I highly suggest you read those posts again, especially you, your friends, your relatives and the one you love are holding a large amount of stocks. You should use this rally to lighten your holding. This may be your last and only chance to sell your stocks before the second phase bear market come into sight.

The best case for the extent of this current rally based on price and time symmetry, would be the 1140  which is the 61.8% retracement level from the 1010.91 low to 1219.80 high, and the time frame being no later than 8/20 before a significant decline into the Sept-Oct period. The next decline could easily reach the 950-940 zone.

I will wait until market hit 1140-1150 before open my short position although the next resistance 1131 may act as a short term cover, I still believe the momentum will push it to 1140-1150.

For you convenience, I paste the July,11 and June,2 posts below, hope you can learn/earn from it.

Sunday, July 11, 2010

My long term perspective of this market

S&P was up 7.71 points last Friday. The momentum of last week rally let me believe that the S&P 1010 is our temporary low. I spent some time on weekend to analyze the charts and review the Dow Theory. I found out the recent low at 1010 could be the first down leg of the second phase of this bear market.

 

There are some criterion need to be fulfilled before the Phase II of the ongoing secular bear market will execute. First of all the market have to make an advance into a secondary high below prior high 1220, secondly, we need to break the secondary low which I believe it's the 1010 we saw last week.

If I am right with the above analysis, then we are entering a short term bull market provided the market hold 1010, that mean the market is heading toward the fibonacci retracement level from the high of 1220 to the recent low 1010. The 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 78.6% fibonacci number are 1090, 1115, 1140 and 1175.


And I believe the market will go up to 1140 or 1175 with five Elliott wave and that three peak of the wave are at 1090, 1115 and 1140/1175. The market will only reach 61.8% fib level 1175 if the momentum is on extreme mode. In the mean time, I doubt the market can go that far, well, I will keep my eyes open and see how the market climb.

I also predict the duration of this counter rally will be 20 to 30 days. By mid to end of August, if you see the market at the extreme overbought level, feel free to lighten your long position, aggressive trader may start shorting this market if all the technical indicators show unanimous direction.

Friday S&P500 closed at 1077.96, I would like to wait for at least 1082- 1085 before start shorting this market again. If you are patient enough, you should wait for the 38.2 fib 1090 or critical resistance 1100.

All in All, today I just want to share my analysis of this market. I may not accurate with this prediction, actually we shouldn't predict the market, but if I am right, at least some long term investors can escape the second phase of this bear market.

Wednesday, June 2, 2010

Where the market is heading in longer term? 

 

S&P 500 today up 27 points, the next resistance will be the 200 days moving average which is 1105.62, after that we have a gap to fill at 1115-1120. Be very careful and alert to watch the market at this point, see if it wants to rise or sink.

Today I am going to talk about the bull and bear situation because I think many people are confused at this time with the direction of the market.

Based on the longer-term phasing and valuation aspects, I belief that the advance out of the March 2009 low has been a bear market rally. Based on my analysis and the data at hand today, I believe that this rally will ultimately prove to be a much longer-term bear market. Historically, Phase II declines are the most devastating and it is my belief that once this bear market rally has run its course, the Phase II decline will be far worse than what was seen between October 2007 and March 2009.

The market  also start a traditional bullish primary trend change with the advance up out of the 2009 Phase I low, and I believe that bullish primary trend change is currently still intact. However, I think that the advance out of the March 2009 low has been crippled and obviously the events seen in May were not good.

The last three rally we have seen in  May, 21, 25, 27 and yesterday are below average volume, we have to be more cautious when we want to get back to this current market. Yes, the market is oversold right now, but if the confidence of the market is down and lack of buying, it will stay at oversold area for a long period of time. And I deeply believe that the second wave of banking trouble is going to start. At that time, the phase II down leg will be in full force. I will suggest you to lighten your portfolio in each market rally from now on so as to avoid to be the next bear market victim.

In seasonal point of view, you may not want to put a heavy weight on bear at this time because June and July are not the worse months, you may want to wait for August through October. Therefore, if the market sell off to the support I mention yesterday which is the 80 weeks moving average S&P 990 with extreme fear and capitulation mode, you may want to add up your portfolio.

Watch 1120 resistance and 1090 support

S&P500 up 0.07 point on Friday after gapped down in the morning and rallied to the top at the end of the day. Market still holding the critical support 1090. I still believe the market will break 1115, 1131 and 1145 in the near future although these three resistances are very tough to break.

You will ask me why I didn't long this market if I know it's going to rise. Answer is very simple, I missed the golden opportunity to long this market when it retracted down to 1057 two weeks ago. It's hard to long this market without that profit cushion. In addition, the rally we are seeing right now is the dawn of the phase II bear market. This bear will wake up again once the dawn is over.

In the mean time, market will make a decision to break 1120 resistance or 1090 support, I believe market will go up and retest the recent high 1120, if it break 1120, it may break 1131 as well if the momentum is supportive.

I want to place a short order at 1131 but I don't like the risk reward ratio, therefore I will place my short order at 1145 which I think market will end its third wave (or you can say fifth wave rally depend on how you interpret).