Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Bear has to defend 'S&P500 1085'

Today market open with upward momentum, it stalled at resistance 1120, actual high 1118.5. I almost put in another SPXU order to short this market because of all the bearish factors I explained to you yesterday. Unfortunately, base on my trading plan and philosophy, I won't open too much short position at the same time. I was holding SPXU and ERY today, so I just let them run the show.

ERY was up 0.82, closed at 10.58. I got my order filled at 10.3, I sold half of it. Not too bad for 12% gain in one day. I will sell the rest at 11.2 tomorrow which is the 50% fibonacci retractment level from 13.2 to 9.2 of last down leg. In addition, the 200 days moving average is at 11.38, 20 days moving average is at 11.42, 13 days moving average is at 10.93. There is no way you want to fight with these moving average resistance.

I didn't sell half my SPXU at 1096 that I promised yesterday because I set my sell limit at 1086 instead, so when the price of SPXU daily high went to 33.19, it didn't trigger my limit order at 33.8.

S&P500 found support at 38% fibonacci retractment level 1095. The market has to defend the 50% retractment level 1085 to prove its good health or it will retest the 1040 low.

Prudent traders might want to cover at least half of their short position at 1086 providing you are position traders and can't keep an eye on the market like me. If you can follow the market you may want to keep holding your short if the market break 1085 support. It may take a pause at next support 1075-1070. Eventually, the chance to retest the 1040 low is very high if the 50% fib level is broken.

We have some astronomical signal-- Firstly, planetary extreme on Wednesday tomorrow, next Monday and Tuesday. Secondly, we have full moon on 26 Saturday. By seeing these, I think we may have a trend reversal by next week latest if we don't have it tomorrow. Therefore, short holder be cautious and don't be too greedy.

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