The S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,030.71) finished with a loss of 10.5 points, or 1%, to give up short-term support in the 1,040 region. For the quarter, the SPX shed 12% ,it's worst quarter since late 2008.
We have the bearish head and shoulder formation confirmed when we closed below 1040 today. However, the market need to drop more than 3% to avoid a false break down. As a result ( 1040 x 0.97 = 1008.8 ) we get this 1008 magic number. This number is the same number we mention yesterday which is the 38.2% fib retractment level from the low of 667 to the high of 1220. Also the 80 days moving average is sitting at 1005, what a coincident. I am sure the market will get a bounce at these series of supports.
Now we just want to wait and see the panic emotion at market bottom combine with these supports, then we can buy this market. The VIX chart still didn't show any panic sign, be patient and let the market come to us.
Again if you are a very prudent trader, you may want to wait for 952-943 support I told you yesterday.
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
S&P '1040' bounce or break ?
Market opened way down and continued to slide through most of the day. Support was broken at one point, but with a small bounce in the last 10 minutes of the day, it managed to close above support 1040.
In last few days I keep telling people the hidden problems of the market. I hope people who read my blog can get the alert. It's risky to start a long or short position at this time because market is at the critical support area right now. It will bounce from here or it will break the neckline of the head and shoulder formation.
The support 1040 is so important because it is the February, May and June critical support, more important it is the low of right shoulder and the neckline of the bearish head and shoulder formation. If the 1040 neckline is broken, the projection of another 180 points ( 1220-1040=180) down will give us 860 (1040-180=860). That's the reason the market has struggled at the critical support all day today.
Above you can see the 5 minutes chart today. Had that last minute leap not happened, support would have been broken at the close. A lot of technical analysts use the closing price as a formal and true price to do the work, therefore today's final rescue I look at it as a little positive sign.
With such a momentous spike downward, we will probably see a reactionary bounce tomorrow. Please note that I used the word "bounce" and not "rally". Let's be honest, things don't look good right now. The original set-up was for a rally off the June low, a retracement to about 1080 -1085 and then the resumption of the rally. That didn't happen and that's the time I mention to all of you that the market is weak and watch for a sudden sell off.
Market is oversold now, but not that oversold to earn a powerful V-shape rally. It may rally the next two days, however, this is not my favourite spot to push a buy button because the risk reward ratio is not good enough. If you want to short, now is too late because market is sitting right on the 1040 critical support. You need to wait until the support is broken decisively, then you may start shorting it, but the risk is higher for the bear at that time though.
First support 1020 which I don't really suggest at this moment. If you want to buy this market, you need to wait for the panic moment, The support number I mention yesterday S&P 1008 which is the 38.2% fib retractment level of the last rally from 667 to 1220 and S&P 1005 which is the 80 weeks moving average are the two supports I appreciate. You may start accumulate some at this level if you are aggressive.
I am a very prudent person, I told you I hate losing money, so I will wait for the 952 which I mention yesterday is the projection of last leg down of 179 points [1219.80-1040.78], and the second leg down to 952 is measured by subtracting 179 points from the 1131.23 high. Also 943 which is the 50% fib level from 667 low to 1219.80 high. When the market go down to 943 to 952 with panic mode, I will be the first person to push the buy button for sure.
I keep reminding people numerous time that the rally from March 2009 to April 2010 is a bear market counter rally, as long as it finish running its course, it will resume the second phase down, and second phase always is the most devastating one. You have been wanted!
In last few days I keep telling people the hidden problems of the market. I hope people who read my blog can get the alert. It's risky to start a long or short position at this time because market is at the critical support area right now. It will bounce from here or it will break the neckline of the head and shoulder formation.
The support 1040 is so important because it is the February, May and June critical support, more important it is the low of right shoulder and the neckline of the bearish head and shoulder formation. If the 1040 neckline is broken, the projection of another 180 points ( 1220-1040=180) down will give us 860 (1040-180=860). That's the reason the market has struggled at the critical support all day today.
Above you can see the 5 minutes chart today. Had that last minute leap not happened, support would have been broken at the close. A lot of technical analysts use the closing price as a formal and true price to do the work, therefore today's final rescue I look at it as a little positive sign.
With such a momentous spike downward, we will probably see a reactionary bounce tomorrow. Please note that I used the word "bounce" and not "rally". Let's be honest, things don't look good right now. The original set-up was for a rally off the June low, a retracement to about 1080 -1085 and then the resumption of the rally. That didn't happen and that's the time I mention to all of you that the market is weak and watch for a sudden sell off.
Market is oversold now, but not that oversold to earn a powerful V-shape rally. It may rally the next two days, however, this is not my favourite spot to push a buy button because the risk reward ratio is not good enough. If you want to short, now is too late because market is sitting right on the 1040 critical support. You need to wait until the support is broken decisively, then you may start shorting it, but the risk is higher for the bear at that time though.
First support 1020 which I don't really suggest at this moment. If you want to buy this market, you need to wait for the panic moment, The support number I mention yesterday S&P 1008 which is the 38.2% fib retractment level of the last rally from 667 to 1220 and S&P 1005 which is the 80 weeks moving average are the two supports I appreciate. You may start accumulate some at this level if you are aggressive.
I am a very prudent person, I told you I hate losing money, so I will wait for the 952 which I mention yesterday is the projection of last leg down of 179 points [1219.80-1040.78], and the second leg down to 952 is measured by subtracting 179 points from the 1131.23 high. Also 943 which is the 50% fib level from 667 low to 1219.80 high. When the market go down to 943 to 952 with panic mode, I will be the first person to push the buy button for sure.
I keep reminding people numerous time that the rally from March 2009 to April 2010 is a bear market counter rally, as long as it finish running its course, it will resume the second phase down, and second phase always is the most devastating one. You have been wanted!
Monday, June 28, 2010
Oversold market but no bounce !......?
Yes, something is wrong. Market didn't bounce today. I watched the market today. I knew it's going to bounce sometime today. I wait until the low of the day, then I put in a TYH long order at 29.25, I sold half at 29.9 and the other half at 29.7 when the market could not sustain at the last half hour.
And I sold all of the other stocks that I bought two days ago, including HVT, FBN, TLB, FAS because they don't have strength comparing the general index.
I decided to sell all of my holding at the end of today's trading because the market show no vital sign. Today's bounce shows me that the technical bounce is not happening. For a healthy trend, it should resume the trend after the fib level retractment of 38.2%, 50% or 61.8%. Unfortunately, 1096, 1085, 1075 are all failed to act as support.
The short term bearish trend doesn't change unless the 1131.23 high is taken out, provided the 1067.89 low holds up. If 1040.78 breaks then you can easy see the SPX hit 1008 at a minimum which is the 38.2% and probably 943 which is the 50% fib level from 667 low to 1219.80 high.
I really like 1008 and 943 these two support because the 80 weeks moving average is now sitting at 1006 and the projection of last leg down of 179 points [1219.80-1040.78] would equal another leg down to 952, measured by subtracting 179 points from the 1131.23 high.
Now we have these next four support number 1008, 1006, 952, 943. I think these numbers are much valuable than some lottery numbers. Please remember them by heart, they will save you a lot of money in the near future. Remember to plan your trade and trade your trade.
Although the negative news is overwhelming the positive news lately, I don't expect SPX 1040 will crack on June or July. Again, this only purely my own bias to the market, I always suggest observing the market instead of predicting it.
And I sold all of the other stocks that I bought two days ago, including HVT, FBN, TLB, FAS because they don't have strength comparing the general index.
I decided to sell all of my holding at the end of today's trading because the market show no vital sign. Today's bounce shows me that the technical bounce is not happening. For a healthy trend, it should resume the trend after the fib level retractment of 38.2%, 50% or 61.8%. Unfortunately, 1096, 1085, 1075 are all failed to act as support.
The short term bearish trend doesn't change unless the 1131.23 high is taken out, provided the 1067.89 low holds up. If 1040.78 breaks then you can easy see the SPX hit 1008 at a minimum which is the 38.2% and probably 943 which is the 50% fib level from 667 low to 1219.80 high.
I really like 1008 and 943 these two support because the 80 weeks moving average is now sitting at 1006 and the projection of last leg down of 179 points [1219.80-1040.78] would equal another leg down to 952, measured by subtracting 179 points from the 1131.23 high.
Now we have these next four support number 1008, 1006, 952, 943. I think these numbers are much valuable than some lottery numbers. Please remember them by heart, they will save you a lot of money in the near future. Remember to plan your trade and trade your trade.
Although the negative news is overwhelming the positive news lately, I don't expect SPX 1040 will crack on June or July. Again, this only purely my own bias to the market, I always suggest observing the market instead of predicting it.
Sunday, June 27, 2010
Market desperate for a bounce or it will 'SINK'
S&P500 was down 3.07 points after went down to 1067 low and retest 1085 high, actual high is 1083. The momentum is still on the bear side after it fail to surpass the former support now resistance, the 50% fib level 1085. In the last blog I mention that if we lost 1085, the next support 1075-1070 is fragile. Well we have a break and a low of 1067 on Friday. We all know 1075 is the 61.8% fib retractment level, so if 1075 was broken, 1055, then 1040 is the next stop.
Market is short term oversold, the risk reward ratio is on the bull side providing that we don't have a market crash here, for you know that oversold market will tend to be more oversold during a market crash.
TYH, TQQQ, are the best candidates to buy when the market rebound. Also financial sector stock FAS is the best choice after the banking reform on Friday, momentum will move this stocks up.
I still holding FAS, TLB, HVT, and I sold UPRO when it hit 133 on Friday, a tiny 2% gain with the cost price of 130.4. I sold KIRK in the morning with 2% loss because I want to substitute it with the momentum stock FAS.
The market need to bounce at this level or we may face another round of sell off. We have a weekly bearish engulfing candlestick signal, and it means we may have more selling going on.
Most of my stocks are in the money, I will set stop loss about 3% below my cost price, Although this market is oversold at this level, I don't want to take a risk if I don't see a bounce tomorrow, something is wrong in this market.
Market is short term oversold, the risk reward ratio is on the bull side providing that we don't have a market crash here, for you know that oversold market will tend to be more oversold during a market crash.
TYH, TQQQ, are the best candidates to buy when the market rebound. Also financial sector stock FAS is the best choice after the banking reform on Friday, momentum will move this stocks up.
I still holding FAS, TLB, HVT, and I sold UPRO when it hit 133 on Friday, a tiny 2% gain with the cost price of 130.4. I sold KIRK in the morning with 2% loss because I want to substitute it with the momentum stock FAS.
The market need to bounce at this level or we may face another round of sell off. We have a weekly bearish engulfing candlestick signal, and it means we may have more selling going on.
Most of my stocks are in the money, I will set stop loss about 3% below my cost price, Although this market is oversold at this level, I don't want to take a risk if I don't see a bounce tomorrow, something is wrong in this market.
Friday, June 25, 2010
Nutrition value of Quercetin
Quercetin is a bioflavonoid (or flavonoid), which is a type pigment found in almost all herbs, fruits, and vegetables. Bioflavonoids provide the body with anti-inflammatory and antioxidant protection, and quercetin is one of the most powerful and effective herbal anti-inflammatory, and antioxidant supplements on the market today. Indeed, quercetin has been shown to help prevent the development of a variety of conditions related to inflammation and free-radical damage, including arthritis, allergies, macular degeneration, heart disease, gout, and various forms of cancer.
Quercetin helps prevent cancer by blocking the flow of nutrients and oxygen to cancerous cells, effectively cutting off their food supply. Quercetin is also a phytoestrogen, or a plant hormone that mimics the effects of estrogen in the human body. Quercetin binds to estrogen-receptor sites in place of estrogen, so that breast cancers that need estrogen to flourish are no longer stimulated to grow. Laboratory studies have shown that quercetin from citrus fruits can reduce the growth rate of breast cancer cells by as much as 50 percent. In addition, quercetin has been shown in animal and test tube studies to inhibit the growth of colon, prostate, breast, and lung cancer cells.
Quercetin helps treat allergies by blocking the secretion of histamine in the body. Histamine causes inflammation and swelling, and is responsible for the stuffy nose, itchy eyes, sneezing, and other annoying symptoms associated with allergies. In laboratory studies quercetin was also shown to inhibit the type of inflammation that causes swollen joints in arthritis sufferers as well as inflammation of the prostate gland (chronic prostatitis). People with rheumatoid arthritis who switched to a diet loaded with lots of bioflavonoid-rich foods have reported significant improvement in their symptoms, and in one study just 500 milligrams of quercetin twice each day was found to improve pelvic pain symptoms in men with prostatitis. In addition, preliminary laboratory studies have also shown that quercetin may inhibit the growth of prostate cancer cells.
Quercetin is also an effective treatment for inflammatory conditions that affect the skin. It increases the production of both collagen and fibronectin, two substances necessary to keep the joints and skin healthy. This makes quercetin helpful to both arthritis sufferers and those wishing to treat or prevent wrinkles. Quercetin is an active ingredient in more and more cosmetic products that claim to help diminish signs of aging. Quercetin may also help speed wound healing; studies have also shown that quercetin helps repair damage to nerve tissues in skin wounds.
Quercetin helps reduce the risk of heart disease by preventing the accumulation of macrophages in the arteries. Macrophages contain large amounts of cholesterol, which can harden into plaque and lead to clogged arteries, or atherosclerosis. In addition, quercetin improves circulation by strengthening capillaries throughout the body, and helps to prevent and treat diseases caused by poor blood supply to the eyes, such as cataracts, diabetic retinopathy, and macular degeneration.
Quercetin is found in almost all plant foods. Black tea, broccoli, onions, red apples, and red wine are good sources of this nutrient. Quercetin supplements are also available in concentrated powders and tablet or capsule form. It is often packaged with bromelain (an enzyme found in pineapple), another substance that has been found useful for treatment of allergies and inflammation, which is thought to increase the absorption of quercetin. The usual dosage of quercetin is 100 to 250 milligrams three times per day.
Quercetin helps prevent cancer by blocking the flow of nutrients and oxygen to cancerous cells, effectively cutting off their food supply. Quercetin is also a phytoestrogen, or a plant hormone that mimics the effects of estrogen in the human body. Quercetin binds to estrogen-receptor sites in place of estrogen, so that breast cancers that need estrogen to flourish are no longer stimulated to grow. Laboratory studies have shown that quercetin from citrus fruits can reduce the growth rate of breast cancer cells by as much as 50 percent. In addition, quercetin has been shown in animal and test tube studies to inhibit the growth of colon, prostate, breast, and lung cancer cells.
Quercetin helps treat allergies by blocking the secretion of histamine in the body. Histamine causes inflammation and swelling, and is responsible for the stuffy nose, itchy eyes, sneezing, and other annoying symptoms associated with allergies. In laboratory studies quercetin was also shown to inhibit the type of inflammation that causes swollen joints in arthritis sufferers as well as inflammation of the prostate gland (chronic prostatitis). People with rheumatoid arthritis who switched to a diet loaded with lots of bioflavonoid-rich foods have reported significant improvement in their symptoms, and in one study just 500 milligrams of quercetin twice each day was found to improve pelvic pain symptoms in men with prostatitis. In addition, preliminary laboratory studies have also shown that quercetin may inhibit the growth of prostate cancer cells.
Quercetin is also an effective treatment for inflammatory conditions that affect the skin. It increases the production of both collagen and fibronectin, two substances necessary to keep the joints and skin healthy. This makes quercetin helpful to both arthritis sufferers and those wishing to treat or prevent wrinkles. Quercetin is an active ingredient in more and more cosmetic products that claim to help diminish signs of aging. Quercetin may also help speed wound healing; studies have also shown that quercetin helps repair damage to nerve tissues in skin wounds.
Quercetin helps reduce the risk of heart disease by preventing the accumulation of macrophages in the arteries. Macrophages contain large amounts of cholesterol, which can harden into plaque and lead to clogged arteries, or atherosclerosis. In addition, quercetin improves circulation by strengthening capillaries throughout the body, and helps to prevent and treat diseases caused by poor blood supply to the eyes, such as cataracts, diabetic retinopathy, and macular degeneration.
Quercetin is found in almost all plant foods. Black tea, broccoli, onions, red apples, and red wine are good sources of this nutrient. Quercetin supplements are also available in concentrated powders and tablet or capsule form. It is often packaged with bromelain (an enzyme found in pineapple), another substance that has been found useful for treatment of allergies and inflammation, which is thought to increase the absorption of quercetin. The usual dosage of quercetin is 100 to 250 milligrams three times per day.
Thursday, June 24, 2010
Will 1070-1075 hold?
S&P500 down 18.35 points today. It's sitting right under the 61.8% fib level 1075. We have to see if the market can have a nice rebound around 1075-1070. If the market break this fib lever, the chance to retest 1040 is very high.
I bought some retail stocks today, TLB, HVT, KIRK. Want to see a few days rebound, but if the market don't have any vital sign, I may sell it before weekend.
Remember we have some astronomical sign going on this weekend, full moon on 26th and some planetary extremes on 28th and 29th. Also the G20 with have another meeting coming weekend. If the market keep falling tomorrow. You may want to lighten your short position and not a good idea to hold on to next week.
I bought some retail stocks today, TLB, HVT, KIRK. Want to see a few days rebound, but if the market don't have any vital sign, I may sell it before weekend.
Remember we have some astronomical sign going on this weekend, full moon on 26th and some planetary extremes on 28th and 29th. Also the G20 with have another meeting coming weekend. If the market keep falling tomorrow. You may want to lighten your short position and not a good idea to hold on to next week.
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Bull and Bear Flash point 1085
S&P500 down 3.27 points today. The critical support at 1085 is the bull and bear battlefield. If the bear lost this support, next support 1075 is fragile before the retest of 1040.
I sold all of my SPXU when S&P500 was at 1086 in this morning. It's not too bad for 12% gain with this trade. Also I sold the rest of ERY at 11 today. I set my limit order at 11.3, but I don't think it will hit my target price today and I don't feel comfortable to hold this stock for 4 days, so I decided to net my 19% profit and get away.
I am 100% in cash again right now. I like that when I am 100% in cash. My mind seems a lot clear when I don't have any position in hand.
S&P500 future is down 5 points by the time of this writing. Seems like the market will retest yesterday low which is the critical support 1085 when the market open tomorrow. There is no way we can predict the direction of the market, but we can read and observe the market. If we have a strong rebound at 1085, bull may have a chance to recuperate this short term uptrend. If 1085 is broken sharply, we may say hello to 1040 again soon.
Personally, I am not sure if 1085 will hold, but I think the worse scenario is we will have a retest of 1040 low and have a strong rebound. At that time we can take a look at the charts and technical indicators see if we can add up some long position.
Just a reminder, my view for the long term is still bearish, the rally from March, 2009 to April, 2010 is just another counter rally in a bear market.
I sold all of my SPXU when S&P500 was at 1086 in this morning. It's not too bad for 12% gain with this trade. Also I sold the rest of ERY at 11 today. I set my limit order at 11.3, but I don't think it will hit my target price today and I don't feel comfortable to hold this stock for 4 days, so I decided to net my 19% profit and get away.
I am 100% in cash again right now. I like that when I am 100% in cash. My mind seems a lot clear when I don't have any position in hand.
S&P500 future is down 5 points by the time of this writing. Seems like the market will retest yesterday low which is the critical support 1085 when the market open tomorrow. There is no way we can predict the direction of the market, but we can read and observe the market. If we have a strong rebound at 1085, bull may have a chance to recuperate this short term uptrend. If 1085 is broken sharply, we may say hello to 1040 again soon.
Personally, I am not sure if 1085 will hold, but I think the worse scenario is we will have a retest of 1040 low and have a strong rebound. At that time we can take a look at the charts and technical indicators see if we can add up some long position.
Just a reminder, my view for the long term is still bearish, the rally from March, 2009 to April, 2010 is just another counter rally in a bear market.
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Bear has to defend 'S&P500 1085'
Today market open with upward momentum, it stalled at resistance 1120, actual high 1118.5. I almost put in another SPXU order to short this market because of all the bearish factors I explained to you yesterday. Unfortunately, base on my trading plan and philosophy, I won't open too much short position at the same time. I was holding SPXU and ERY today, so I just let them run the show.
ERY was up 0.82, closed at 10.58. I got my order filled at 10.3, I sold half of it. Not too bad for 12% gain in one day. I will sell the rest at 11.2 tomorrow which is the 50% fibonacci retractment level from 13.2 to 9.2 of last down leg. In addition, the 200 days moving average is at 11.38, 20 days moving average is at 11.42, 13 days moving average is at 10.93. There is no way you want to fight with these moving average resistance.
I didn't sell half my SPXU at 1096 that I promised yesterday because I set my sell limit at 1086 instead, so when the price of SPXU daily high went to 33.19, it didn't trigger my limit order at 33.8.
S&P500 found support at 38% fibonacci retractment level 1095. The market has to defend the 50% retractment level 1085 to prove its good health or it will retest the 1040 low.
Prudent traders might want to cover at least half of their short position at 1086 providing you are position traders and can't keep an eye on the market like me. If you can follow the market you may want to keep holding your short if the market break 1085 support. It may take a pause at next support 1075-1070. Eventually, the chance to retest the 1040 low is very high if the 50% fib level is broken.
We have some astronomical signal-- Firstly, planetary extreme on Wednesday tomorrow, next Monday and Tuesday. Secondly, we have full moon on 26 Saturday. By seeing these, I think we may have a trend reversal by next week latest if we don't have it tomorrow. Therefore, short holder be cautious and don't be too greedy.
ERY was up 0.82, closed at 10.58. I got my order filled at 10.3, I sold half of it. Not too bad for 12% gain in one day. I will sell the rest at 11.2 tomorrow which is the 50% fibonacci retractment level from 13.2 to 9.2 of last down leg. In addition, the 200 days moving average is at 11.38, 20 days moving average is at 11.42, 13 days moving average is at 10.93. There is no way you want to fight with these moving average resistance.
I didn't sell half my SPXU at 1096 that I promised yesterday because I set my sell limit at 1086 instead, so when the price of SPXU daily high went to 33.19, it didn't trigger my limit order at 33.8.
S&P500 found support at 38% fibonacci retractment level 1095. The market has to defend the 50% retractment level 1085 to prove its good health or it will retest the 1040 low.
Prudent traders might want to cover at least half of their short position at 1086 providing you are position traders and can't keep an eye on the market like me. If you can follow the market you may want to keep holding your short if the market break 1085 support. It may take a pause at next support 1075-1070. Eventually, the chance to retest the 1040 low is very high if the 50% fib level is broken.
We have some astronomical signal-- Firstly, planetary extreme on Wednesday tomorrow, next Monday and Tuesday. Secondly, we have full moon on 26 Saturday. By seeing these, I think we may have a trend reversal by next week latest if we don't have it tomorrow. Therefore, short holder be cautious and don't be too greedy.
Monday, June 21, 2010
Bearish engulfing candle stick chart
S&P500 high 1131.23, closed at 1113.2. Down 4.31points. It was up 13 points in the morning. I mention yesterday that 1130, 1140 and 1150 are very critical resistance. 1130 is the 50% fibonacci retractment level from 1220 high and 1040 low. 1140 is the 50 days moving average resistance. 1150 is the January high resistance and the 61.8 fibonacci retractment level.
We have a bearish engulfing candle stick chart today. Tomorrow is the confirmation day. If we get a long sell off candle stick tomorrow, then we may have a few down days coming.
I placed a SPXU order to short this market in this morning when the market could not take out 1130 and retracted. Also I bought ERY to short the energy sector. I bought it at 9.25 and it rebounced to 9.76 at the end. I will sell half of the ERY when it hit 10.3 which is the 50 days moving average and keep the rest for riding.
Assuming we've found short term high at 1131 and start a correction. I will sell half my SPUX when it hit the 38.2% fibonacci retractment level at 1096, and the other half at 1086 which is the 50% fibonacci retractment level of 1040 low to 1131 high.
Sunday, June 20, 2010
Short S&P 500 at 1140-1150
Market was trading within trading range 1105-1121 from Wednesday through Friday without significant direction. I didn't place any order because of this. Look like I can get a short order fill tomorrow because the S&P future is up 15 points by the time of this writing.
Traders have to be very cautious in the next few days trading. Market is a little bid overbought here. 1130, 1140 and 1150 are next hurdles market has to tackle before the bull can celebrate.
The risk reward ratio is a lot better on the bear side for sure now. Why? First of all market is short term overbought, daily stochastics is at 95.5% , second of all, next resistance is at 50 days moving average 1140. If the market has so much momentum to break through 1140. The last resistance 1150 is not so easy to break. 1150 is the last January high resistance, 1151 also is the 61.8% fibonacci projection level from the high of 1220 to the low of 1040.
I will place my first short order by the 50 days moving average 1140 and the next short order by 1150. If the market do retract after hitting these two resistance. I will take half of my profit when they drop down to 200 days moving average 1110. July shouldn't be a very aggressive month for bear, so I will wait until August, September and October for better opportunity.
Traders have to be very cautious in the next few days trading. Market is a little bid overbought here. 1130, 1140 and 1150 are next hurdles market has to tackle before the bull can celebrate.
The risk reward ratio is a lot better on the bear side for sure now. Why? First of all market is short term overbought, daily stochastics is at 95.5% , second of all, next resistance is at 50 days moving average 1140. If the market has so much momentum to break through 1140. The last resistance 1150 is not so easy to break. 1150 is the last January high resistance, 1151 also is the 61.8% fibonacci projection level from the high of 1220 to the low of 1040.
I will place my first short order by the 50 days moving average 1140 and the next short order by 1150. If the market do retract after hitting these two resistance. I will take half of my profit when they drop down to 200 days moving average 1110. July shouldn't be a very aggressive month for bear, so I will wait until August, September and October for better opportunity.
Saturday, June 19, 2010
Resveratrol
The health benefits of red wine, most notably that is lowers your risk of cancer and heart disease. Scientists discovered the link between red wine consumption and better health while studying what they call the French paradox: Why do the French have less heart disease and cancer, when the typical French diet and lifestyle often includes high-fat foods as well as cigarettes? Their studies showed that, surprisingly, it was the French habit of drinking a glass or two of red wine each day that protected them from developing these chronic diseases.
Yet how can drinking alcohol actually improve anyone’s health when it is a well-established fact that alcohol inhibits the body’s absorption of all vitamins, and can, when consumed regularly, lead to liver damage, dementia, and a host of other nasty disorders? Researchers found the answer to this question when they discovered resveratrol, an antioxidant, anti-inflammatory substance found in red wine. Further studies of resveratrol revealed that it helps prevent blood clots by keeping blood vessels open.
Resveratrol helps lower cholesterol, and is as much as 10 to 20 times more potent than vitamin E in protecting against LDL oxidation, a process that has been linked to the development of cardiovascular disease. It is also thought to discourage tumor growth by blocking the action of Cox-2, an enzyme that researchers believe contributes to the development of colon cancer. Additional studies suggest that resveratrol may be useful in both preventing and treating cancer.
Resveratrol is found in the stems, leaves, and skins of grapes. Although a glass or two of red wine each day may lower the risk of heart disease, one recent study shows that alcohol-free red wine works just as well. Resveratrol is also present in purple grape juice, red or purple grapes, and peanuts. However, because of the fermenting process, resveratrol levels are higher in red wine than other natural sources—red wine has about three times as much resveratrol as grape juice.
Resveratrol supplements are also now available, and are usually combined with grape extracts or other antioxidants. Since researchers are just beginning to explore the benefits of resveratrol, there is no Recommended Dietary Allowance (RDA) for this substance; to date, no side effects, toxic symptoms, or drug interactions have been reported in connection with resveratrol consumption.
Researchers believe that 500 milligrams daily is the minimum amount of resveratrol needed to protect against cancer. A glass of red wine contains approximately 640 micrograms of resveratrol, and a handful of peanuts supplies nearly 75 micrograms.
Resveratrol May Reduce Stroke Damage. New research shows that resveratrol (an antioxidant abundant in grape skin) may help build up the brain's resistance to stroke.
In tests on animals, scientists discovered that resveratrol helped boost levels of heme oxygenase (an enzyme known to protect brain cells from harm). After suffering a stroke, resveratrol-fed lab mice showed significantly less brain damage than animals that had not been given resveratrol.
It's too soon to recommend taking resveratrol supplements in order to enhance brain health, according to the study's authors. Indeed, most of the research on resveratrol's health effects has been carried out in experiments on animals and in test tubes. Findings from those studies suggest that resveratrol may show promise in protection against breast cancer, heart disease, inflammation, and neurodegenerative diseases.
If you'd like to increase your resveratrol intake without using supplements, try including more resveratrol-rich foods (such as grapes, cranberry, and pomegranate) in your diet.
Yet how can drinking alcohol actually improve anyone’s health when it is a well-established fact that alcohol inhibits the body’s absorption of all vitamins, and can, when consumed regularly, lead to liver damage, dementia, and a host of other nasty disorders? Researchers found the answer to this question when they discovered resveratrol, an antioxidant, anti-inflammatory substance found in red wine. Further studies of resveratrol revealed that it helps prevent blood clots by keeping blood vessels open.
Resveratrol helps lower cholesterol, and is as much as 10 to 20 times more potent than vitamin E in protecting against LDL oxidation, a process that has been linked to the development of cardiovascular disease. It is also thought to discourage tumor growth by blocking the action of Cox-2, an enzyme that researchers believe contributes to the development of colon cancer. Additional studies suggest that resveratrol may be useful in both preventing and treating cancer.
Resveratrol is found in the stems, leaves, and skins of grapes. Although a glass or two of red wine each day may lower the risk of heart disease, one recent study shows that alcohol-free red wine works just as well. Resveratrol is also present in purple grape juice, red or purple grapes, and peanuts. However, because of the fermenting process, resveratrol levels are higher in red wine than other natural sources—red wine has about three times as much resveratrol as grape juice.
Resveratrol supplements are also now available, and are usually combined with grape extracts or other antioxidants. Since researchers are just beginning to explore the benefits of resveratrol, there is no Recommended Dietary Allowance (RDA) for this substance; to date, no side effects, toxic symptoms, or drug interactions have been reported in connection with resveratrol consumption.
Researchers believe that 500 milligrams daily is the minimum amount of resveratrol needed to protect against cancer. A glass of red wine contains approximately 640 micrograms of resveratrol, and a handful of peanuts supplies nearly 75 micrograms.
Resveratrol May Reduce Stroke Damage. New research shows that resveratrol (an antioxidant abundant in grape skin) may help build up the brain's resistance to stroke.
In tests on animals, scientists discovered that resveratrol helped boost levels of heme oxygenase (an enzyme known to protect brain cells from harm). After suffering a stroke, resveratrol-fed lab mice showed significantly less brain damage than animals that had not been given resveratrol.
It's too soon to recommend taking resveratrol supplements in order to enhance brain health, according to the study's authors. Indeed, most of the research on resveratrol's health effects has been carried out in experiments on animals and in test tubes. Findings from those studies suggest that resveratrol may show promise in protection against breast cancer, heart disease, inflammation, and neurodegenerative diseases.
If you'd like to increase your resveratrol intake without using supplements, try including more resveratrol-rich foods (such as grapes, cranberry, and pomegranate) in your diet.
Friday, June 18, 2010
Acai Berry Fruit--Excellent source of Antioxidants & Anthocyanins
What is Acai?
Acai (pronounced ( ah-sigh-EE ) is a fruit that grows on the Acai Palm Trees in the Amazon Rainforest of Brazil. The Acai berry is small in size (smaller than a grape) and is dark purple in color. Acai is mostly seed, covered in a small amount of pulp. In fact, about 90% of the Acai berry is seed. Acai has 10 Times the antioxidant power of red grapes and twice that of blueberries.
What are Free Radicals and Antioxidants?
We are all made up of atoms. Atoms that have a full outer shell of electrons tend to be happy, peaceful and inert atoms. They tend not to enter into chemical reactions and enjoy a mellow life in your body.
Atoms that do NOT have a full outer shell of electrons are unhappy and unstable. Something is missing in their life - and they very badly want to get another electron so they can be stable and inert. These unstable atoms are called - Free Radicals.
Free radicals tend to move quickly to try to steal an electron from whatever molecule happens to be around them. Of course, whoever they steal an electron from becomes a new free radical and the process is like a domino effect.Free radicals are not evil or bad - in moderation. Our body performs many functions and there will always be some free radicals created. However, if the level of free radicals gets too high in the body, you can run into major problems. Numerous diseases and health issues have been linked to high levels of free radicals.
One of the more common types of free radicals are oxygen free radicals. These are oxygen atoms missing an electron. You know that rust you see on the side of your car - well the same thing basically happens inside our body. Oxidative stress is what it is called when oxygen free radicals start to cause damage in your body.
What causes Free Radicals?
Breathing, eating, moving - basically living! Yes, basically any stress we put on our body can cause free radicals. While obvious things like polluted air, smoking, stressful events and unhealthy foods can cause free radicals - many "healthy" activities can also create free radicals. Almost any type of exercise will put stress on our body - we all know the saying "no pain, no gain". Well, all this stress on our muscles creates free radicals.
Antioxidants to the rescue
So, how do you turn a free radical into a harmless cell? You give the free radical the extra electron it so desperately wants. What substance can supply this extra electron? You guessed it - antioxidants. Antioxidants are any substances that prevent or slow the oxidation process. Remember, free radicals cause oxidation - and antioxidants prevent oxidation. Antioxidants work by donating an electron to a free radical so it becomes a stable oxygen molecule.
What is ORAC?
ORAC stands for Oxygen Radical Absorbance Capacity. ORAC measures the ability of just about any substance to subdue oxygen free radicals in the test tube. In short, ORAC is a lab assay that can measure the antioxidant activity of any substance and give it a number. The higher the ORAC number - the stronger the antioxidant properties of the substance. While the exact science behind ORAC gets beyond the scope of this article, it is clear that if you want foods with greater antioxidant properties, you look for foods with high ORAC levels. The USDA recommends we consume 3,000 to 5,000 ORAC units daily. In truth, 80% of the population is consuming less than 1,000 ORAC units a day. The USDA recommended "5-a-day" fruit and vegetable servings will give you an ORAC score of about 1,750 units.
Fruits and vegetables tend to have the highest ORAC values. Per 100 grams - Apples score a 218, Bananas a 221, blueberries 2,400. And what about fresh Acai? Acai has an amazing 5,500 ORAC score.
How about Anthocyanins?
Have you ever seen beautiful purple flowers? How about a deep red grape or a bright red Fuji apple? If you answered yes (and if you said no - stop reading this article and go out and enjoy nature more!) then you have seen anthocyanins. Anthocyanins are flavonoid pigments that plants and fruits synthesize. Anthocyanins give plants and fruits their beautiful pigmentation - but it is not all about looks. Anthocyanins can acts as a sunscreen for plants and in fruits the bright color attracts animals which feast on the fruits and in the process disperse the seeds. However, the aspect of Anthocyanins that is of most interest in regard to the Acai fruit is their antioxidant properties.
Fruits (like the Acai Berry Fruit) that are exposed to strong sunlight face a tremendous amount of ultra violet light stress. This UV light triggers free radicals to form in the fruit. Fruits, such as the Acai berry, develop high levels of anthocyanins because they have very strong antioxidants properties and can quench the free radicals. Here is the interesting part - the antioxidant properties of anthocyanins are maintained even after they are eaten by another organism. This is why fruits with bright pigmentation tend to have the great ORAC values - they are loaded with anthocyanins! Yes, you guessed it - Acai berries have a tremendous concentration of anthocyanins.
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
Enjoy the bull run, but be cautious!
Today S&P500 bouncing up and down the positive and negative zone several times. At the end closed down 0.62 point. The low was 1107, buyers rush in and made the 1110 (200 days moving average) a very strong short term support.
If you have no chance to buy into this rally, I don't suggest you to buy it at this price level. It's better to wait for a retractment. Let say if the market retract from yesterday high 1119, you can wait for the 38% (1089) or 50% (1079) retractment level to enter your trade providing that the market rebound at these level.
If you want to short this market, you need to wait for the 50 days moving average which is 1142 or the next price resistance 1150. Remember to set a stop lost few points away. Better be safe than sorry!
If you have no chance to buy into this rally, I don't suggest you to buy it at this price level. It's better to wait for a retractment. Let say if the market retract from yesterday high 1119, you can wait for the 38% (1089) or 50% (1079) retractment level to enter your trade providing that the market rebound at these level.
If you want to short this market, you need to wait for the 50 days moving average which is 1142 or the next price resistance 1150. Remember to set a stop lost few points away. Better be safe than sorry!
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
Bulls' ball in hand
Today's move higher could be very significant, as we broke out of the recent trading range between 1,100 and 1,040. Additionally, the S&P 500 Index moved above its 200-day moving average -- a longer-term trendline that many use to distinguish between a bull and bear market.
The ball is in the bulls' hand now, momentum is upward, it is a good chance to check the health of the overall market by observing this bull run. If the upward momentum is strong enough, next resistance will be 50 days moving average 1143 and resistance 1150. However, keep an eye on these two resistance because there is a big bearish head and shoulder formation going on, and these two resistance may be the right shoulder if the market sell off after hitting them and go down to 1040 or lower.
In my opinion, the top we saw on April at 1220 should be the top of this bear market counter rally. I will not add any long position to my portfolio unless there is a sell panic capitulation. However, I will add up short position when the index run to some critical resistance level in the near future. I will keep you alert when the day come.
The ball is in the bulls' hand now, momentum is upward, it is a good chance to check the health of the overall market by observing this bull run. If the upward momentum is strong enough, next resistance will be 50 days moving average 1143 and resistance 1150. However, keep an eye on these two resistance because there is a big bearish head and shoulder formation going on, and these two resistance may be the right shoulder if the market sell off after hitting them and go down to 1040 or lower.
In my opinion, the top we saw on April at 1220 should be the top of this bear market counter rally. I will not add any long position to my portfolio unless there is a sell panic capitulation. However, I will add up short position when the index run to some critical resistance level in the near future. I will keep you alert when the day come.
Monday, June 14, 2010
What next after retracted from 200 days moving average?
What a predictable day! Yesterday we have a trading plan and we had our short order fill in this morning when the market almost hit the 200 days moving average at 1105. Not a bad day for 16 points gain when market closed down 16 points from the daily high 1105.91 to daily low 1089.03.
Again and Again, today another attempt to break through 200 days moving average. What next after another retract from 200 days moving average? Now the market tested resistance 1110 three times and support 1040 three times. None of these can break out. We still waiting a confirmation from the market. As long as the market stays within 1041-1110, I will not suggest holding position overnight. It just too risky because the market is totally control by the news in this trading range.
Again and Again, today another attempt to break through 200 days moving average. What next after another retract from 200 days moving average? Now the market tested resistance 1110 three times and support 1040 three times. None of these can break out. We still waiting a confirmation from the market. As long as the market stays within 1041-1110, I will not suggest holding position overnight. It just too risky because the market is totally control by the news in this trading range.
Sunday, June 13, 2010
Volatile "triple-witching" expiration week
Next week is the expiration of equity options, stock index options and stock futures contracts. Stock market performance during "triple-witching" expiration, which occurs during the March, June, September, and December expiration weeks, provides a dangerous environment for bulls and bears or you may say excellent opportunity for traders.
The S&P 500 will find 1100 a tougher challenge. The SPX hasn't finished a week above this round number since mid-May. Traders were still concerned about European debt issues and the Gulf oil spill, I think this week the market is going to tell you the direction.
Trading range 1040-1100 still act as a short term indicator for bull and bear, we will short this market again if it reach 200 days moving average 1107 or resistance 1100 and retract or we will long this market if it breaks through the resistance of 200 days moving average 1107 and 1100 resistance decisively with great volume, then, wait for fibonacci retracement levels and place long order.
Saturday, June 12, 2010
Cancer fighter--Curcumin
Curcumin is the bright yellow anti-inflammatory, anti-oxidant compounds of the turmeric root. Curcumin also causes cancer cell apoptosis (programmed cell death). There are many diseases that are very inflammatory in nature, most being in the category of autoimmune diseases whereby the immune system breaks down and starts attacking itself. Curcumin has shown to be very anti-inflammatory without any negative side effects and many additional positive benefits. Curcuminoids are dual-action antioxidants extracted from the turmeric root. They have the unique property of both preventing the formation of free radicals, and of neutralizing free radicals.
Anti Cancer Action
Curcumin has been developed by the US National Cancer Institute (NCI) and academic investigators around the world as a potent anti-carcinogen. Because of low toxicity and great efficacy in multiple in vitro and in vivo cancer models, curcumin was selected for further development, put through extensive toxicology testing and has successively made it through the first stages (Phase I) of clinical testing abroad and is currently in clinical trials at several sites in the U.S. All of this work by many labs has provided the basis to quickly and safely explore curcumin’s potential for Alzheimer’s and other neurological diseases.
Do you know that India has just one-tenth the cancer rate of America. The main reason has been attributed to curry, or actually a compound in one of the spices that make up curry called Curcumin(turmeric). Turmeric is a strong antioxidant and free-radical scavenger, but it also possesses amazing anti-inflammatory, anti-mutagenic, and other protective powers.
The compound curcumin is responsible for the yellowish-orange color and distinctive smell of tumeric. Curcumin is more than just a simple pigment. Researchers at the cancer center in Houston reported that curcumin stops laboratory strains of melanoma from proliferating and causes the cancer cells to commit suicide. The findings are so dramatic that human clinical trials are already underway testing curcumin's ability to retard the growth of both pancreatic and breast cancer, and animal studies of its effects on melanoma will begin shortly.
The compound curcumin is responsible for the yellowish-orange color and distinctive smell of tumeric. Curcumin is more than just a simple pigment. Researchers at the cancer center in Houston reported that curcumin stops laboratory strains of melanoma from proliferating and causes the cancer cells to commit suicide. The findings are so dramatic that human clinical trials are already underway testing curcumin's ability to retard the growth of both pancreatic and breast cancer, and animal studies of its effects on melanoma will begin shortly.
The study, reports that the spice appears to shut down a protein active in the spread of breast cancer to a major target for metastasis. Researchers found that the nontoxic natural substance not only repelled progression of the disease to the lungs, but also appeared to reverse the effects of paclitaxel (Taxol™), a commonly prescribed chemotherapy for breast cancer that may trigger spread of the disease with use over a long period of time. Because Taxol is so toxic, it activates a protein that produces an inflammatory response that induces metastasis. Curcumin suppresses this response, making it impossible for the cancer to spread. In fact, researchers found that adding curcumin to Taxol actually enhances its effect. Cancer strains are unable to grow and cells are pushed to commit suicide.
At M. D. Anderson, for example, dramatic results from laboratory studies have led to two ongoing Phase I human clinical trials, testing the ability of daily capsules of curcumin powder to retard growth of pancreatic cancer and multiple myeloma. Another Phase I trial was done for patients with breast cancer, and given this news of curcumin's activity in melanoma, animal studies will soon begin, Aggarwal says. While researchers had thought curcumin primarily has anti-inflammatory properties, the growing realization that cancer can result from inflammation has spurred mounting interest in the spice as an anti-cancer agent. Curcumin had any effect on patients with pancreatic cancer, which is difficult to treat successfully.
Oral administration of curcumin has been shown in several earlier studies to inhibit oral, forestomach, duodenal and colon cancer. One study also reports the cytotoxicity of curcuminoids against human ovarian cancer OVCAR-3 cells. Another study was directed towards oral cancer. . The number of tumors were significantly lower in the animals that received turmeric in the diet and applied locally. Suggesting that curcumin and turmeric may have a plausible chemopreventive effect on oral precancerous lesions. Mechanism of chemoprotective and chemopreventive actions of Curcumin Curcuminoids are proven to have a dual-pronged mechanism of antioxidant action, viz., inhibiting the formation as well as propagation of free radicals.
At M. D. Anderson, for example, dramatic results from laboratory studies have led to two ongoing Phase I human clinical trials, testing the ability of daily capsules of curcumin powder to retard growth of pancreatic cancer and multiple myeloma. Another Phase I trial was done for patients with breast cancer, and given this news of curcumin's activity in melanoma, animal studies will soon begin, Aggarwal says. While researchers had thought curcumin primarily has anti-inflammatory properties, the growing realization that cancer can result from inflammation has spurred mounting interest in the spice as an anti-cancer agent. Curcumin had any effect on patients with pancreatic cancer, which is difficult to treat successfully.
Oral administration of curcumin has been shown in several earlier studies to inhibit oral, forestomach, duodenal and colon cancer. One study also reports the cytotoxicity of curcuminoids against human ovarian cancer OVCAR-3 cells. Another study was directed towards oral cancer. . The number of tumors were significantly lower in the animals that received turmeric in the diet and applied locally. Suggesting that curcumin and turmeric may have a plausible chemopreventive effect on oral precancerous lesions. Mechanism of chemoprotective and chemopreventive actions of Curcumin Curcuminoids are proven to have a dual-pronged mechanism of antioxidant action, viz., inhibiting the formation as well as propagation of free radicals.
Friday, June 11, 2010
Cash is king
Hope you didn't hold any open position through this weekend. The market is motivated by news lately. It just like playing roulette in casino by holding either long or short. Before the market can break out the trading range of 1110-1040 and build up a trend, it's unwise to bet on either side.
Thursday, June 10, 2010
Bull sailing along 200 days moving average
S&P500 today up 31 points, This is one of the reason not to hold open position at this critical juncture. I mention that the risk reward ratio for bull and bear is pretty even. And I know at this low level, bull is going to roar in one day like today.
1040 again prove to be a very strong support, market rebound nicely from there with today whooping 31 points. The next challenge will be the 1100 to 1110 area, it is a very tough resistance, The 200 days moving average is at 1107.61 at this time. Market retract right away when it hit the 200 days moving average last two times. We will keep an eye on this resistance.
There are two ways we can play this market, firstly, like last two times, place a short order by 200 days moving average, then, set a stop order 4 to 5 points away. Secondly, we can wait after market break through the resistance of 200 days moving average 1107 decisively with great volume. Wait for fibonacci retracement levels and place long order.
The market is still travels in a big trading range between 1040-1110, as long as the market is not breaking this range, we will long and short by the resistance and support.
Today market gap open, there is only one good spot you can open a long position, around 1074 which is the 38% Fibonacci retractment level from the open low 1058 to the morning high 1083. If you look at the hourly 50 moving average chart above, you can see the 50 minutes moving average act as a support to this retractment. If you open a position at this spot, you still have a nice ride for the end of the day.
1040 again prove to be a very strong support, market rebound nicely from there with today whooping 31 points. The next challenge will be the 1100 to 1110 area, it is a very tough resistance, The 200 days moving average is at 1107.61 at this time. Market retract right away when it hit the 200 days moving average last two times. We will keep an eye on this resistance.
There are two ways we can play this market, firstly, like last two times, place a short order by 200 days moving average, then, set a stop order 4 to 5 points away. Secondly, we can wait after market break through the resistance of 200 days moving average 1107 decisively with great volume. Wait for fibonacci retracement levels and place long order.
The market is still travels in a big trading range between 1040-1110, as long as the market is not breaking this range, we will long and short by the resistance and support.
Wednesday, June 9, 2010
Are you a bull hunter or bear hunter?
Market is still searching for bottom, Today S&P500 touching 1077 which is the 10 days moving average. Unfortunately, a sell off is carry on until the end of the day, close down 6.31 points. The last few days you can see the market really want to move up, but the economic environment is not helping at all.
Basically, the market is consolidating between 1107 and 1040, we are at the bottom of this consolidation, you will say the bull's risk reward ratio is better than the bear by just looking at this number. Don't forget we are in a down trend correction, we will never know the end until it change direction. You don't want to catch a falling knife.
There is a trading strategy in mind:
Basically, the market is consolidating between 1107 and 1040, we are at the bottom of this consolidation, you will say the bull's risk reward ratio is better than the bear by just looking at this number. Don't forget we are in a down trend correction, we will never know the end until it change direction. You don't want to catch a falling knife.
There is a trading strategy in mind:
- When market break through 200 days moving average and the resistance of 1107 with great volume. Wait for fibonacci retracement levels and place long order.
- Short this market when the 1040 support is broken harshly. Remember to set a stop right bove 1040 and set a target right above next support about 1000 and 990.
- After market break through 1040, wait until the selling pressure is settle, then start accumulating when it drop to around 1000 and 990. Remember to divide your trading capital into at least 3 portion during the accumulation.
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
Long term hypothesis
Today S&P500 successfully test 1040 and rebound, very positive sign to long? God knows. The only thing I know and trust is risk reward ratio. In a very long term, the only factor distinguish a good trader and a bad trader is risk reward ratio.
Theoretically, a trader will never lose a single dime if he do the right thing at the right time. There are only three things trader can do with the market, long, short or in cash. That mean if you are not sure or there are no substantial evidence to prove that the market will move to a specific direction. You should not open any position.
We are in a very critical market decision point right now. S&P500 either hold at 1040 and rebound or break down from there and get another support at around 990-1000. There is no way to open a position at this critical juncture. It just like playing roulette in casino.
When I encounter this kind of situation, I will sit back and take a look at the big picture, that mean the longer term of this market. Which is the main theme I want to share with you today.
Above, you can see a very long term 160 months moving average support the last market crash in 2003. It also act as a resistance few times this year. Obviously, the support was broken on May around 1170.
The second picture above you can see the 200 days moving average, this is most widely watch as a indicator of market health. Also, it was broken at 1107 on May.
The last picture above is the 80 weeks moving average, which is a very good moving average to follow. You can see how beautiful it act as a resistance and support during the 2008 market crash. It almost touch the support around 997 which is the support I am watching right now.
I show you this picture because I want you to climb higher and have a better perspective.
I have two hypothesis about the current market.
Theoretically, a trader will never lose a single dime if he do the right thing at the right time. There are only three things trader can do with the market, long, short or in cash. That mean if you are not sure or there are no substantial evidence to prove that the market will move to a specific direction. You should not open any position.
We are in a very critical market decision point right now. S&P500 either hold at 1040 and rebound or break down from there and get another support at around 990-1000. There is no way to open a position at this critical juncture. It just like playing roulette in casino.
When I encounter this kind of situation, I will sit back and take a look at the big picture, that mean the longer term of this market. Which is the main theme I want to share with you today.
Above, you can see a very long term 160 months moving average support the last market crash in 2003. It also act as a resistance few times this year. Obviously, the support was broken on May around 1170.
The second picture above you can see the 200 days moving average, this is most widely watch as a indicator of market health. Also, it was broken at 1107 on May.
The last picture above is the 80 weeks moving average, which is a very good moving average to follow. You can see how beautiful it act as a resistance and support during the 2008 market crash. It almost touch the support around 997 which is the support I am watching right now.
I show you this picture because I want you to climb higher and have a better perspective.
I have two hypothesis about the current market.
- The market will hold 1040, then rebound to the critical resistance which are 50 days, 200 days and 160 months moving average ( 1152, 1107, 1170 ), after that market will resume the second phase of this bear market.
- The market will break through 1040 and drop further to 997 or lower, then rebound to the critical resistance which are 50 days, 200 days and 160 months moving average ( 1152, 1107, 1170 ), after that market will resume the second phase of this bear market.
Monday, June 7, 2010
'Bull vs Bear' 'Greed vs Fear'
Another down day, S&P down 14.41 points. I still didn't see any extreme fear in this sell off. I know I am a picky guy, I told you I hate losing money. I am waiting for another big sell off day, better be 2 days in a row with high VIX reading. To make this scene look even better? In one day big drop down through 80 weeks moving average which is around 990-1000, then rebound to the high of the day, shows a long tail 'hammer' or 'hanging man' candlestick signal.
I am a idealist and perfectionist. It' very risky and costly for a person like me to involve in stock market because the market doesn't care what you think. It just acts whatever it want. However, one element can conquer it. 'Patient' is the most essential element. I will wait until the market come to me instead of chasing after it.
There is a dilemma to long or short the market at this point. It is oversold, but not to the point I want to buy. Since the RSI and stochastic are not at the ultimate oversold level, I will wait for more sell off and want to see the criterion I mention above before to push a buy button.
If the market regain momentum, remember these stocks, they may run faster than you expect.
HAUP, MBI, NBS, VRS, MAPP and everybody's sugar daddy AAPL
I am a idealist and perfectionist. It' very risky and costly for a person like me to involve in stock market because the market doesn't care what you think. It just acts whatever it want. However, one element can conquer it. 'Patient' is the most essential element. I will wait until the market come to me instead of chasing after it.
There is a dilemma to long or short the market at this point. It is oversold, but not to the point I want to buy. Since the RSI and stochastic are not at the ultimate oversold level, I will wait for more sell off and want to see the criterion I mention above before to push a buy button.
If the market regain momentum, remember these stocks, they may run faster than you expect.
HAUP, MBI, NBS, VRS, MAPP and everybody's sugar daddy AAPL
Sunday, June 6, 2010
Bear is roaring
we are seeing many signs that a relief rally could happen soon. But if bear market taught us anything, it is: don't fight the market. It will do what it wants to do, and trying to prove you are right is costly.
After last Friday's sell off, the market has unsuccessfully test the 200 days moving average twice. I strongly believe that the market will retest the 1040 low, and the chance to break through this support is getting higher and higher. As a matter of fact, the only way we can be safe to long this market is wait until extreme capitulation. As I mention in last few blogs, the 80 weeks moving average at S&P 990 combine with extreme volume and high VIX , then we can try to jump in.
I am 100% in cash right now, I have a bear bias, but I am ready for long if the market come to me as I discuss above.
After last Friday's sell off, the market has unsuccessfully test the 200 days moving average twice. I strongly believe that the market will retest the 1040 low, and the chance to break through this support is getting higher and higher. As a matter of fact, the only way we can be safe to long this market is wait until extreme capitulation. As I mention in last few blogs, the 80 weeks moving average at S&P 990 combine with extreme volume and high VIX , then we can try to jump in.
I am 100% in cash right now, I have a bear bias, but I am ready for long if the market come to me as I discuss above.
How to alleviate high blood pressure
In our body, the activity of blood is not spontaneous, it's rely on different organs of the body to do the job. The flow of blood is the result of the heart contraction and expansion, resulting pressures; blood in the left ventricle is pumped out under pressure, to the aorta, then the pressure continues to be maintained and promote, this is the aortic blood pressure, commonly known as systolic blood pressure . Thereafter, the heart with diastolic blood flow into the right atrium, we call it diastolic blood pressure.
Human body's blood pressure, mainly come from contraction and release of the heart, but in order to cope with various changes, there must be "fine tuning" mechanism. One of them is the blood vessel. Vascular wall of smooth muscle, the muscle can contract and expand. If it contract the blood pressure will rise; if it expand the blood pressure will decrease.
In the contraction, there is a set of actions, movements began in the liver. Liver first to create "angiotensinogen" (Angiotensinogen) hormone. This hormone then travel to kidneys with blood, from renin to "angiotensin-1" (Angiotensin-I, ANGI); ANGI go further with the blood to the lungs, from there, a biological enzyme called ACE change it to "vascular tone factor 2 "(Angiotensin-II,ANGII). ANGII will stick to blood vessels receptor (called AT1 Receptor), and the smooth muscle of vessel walls in blood vessels will narrow, as a result blood pressure will increase correspondingly.
A drug called Captopril, can greatly inhibit the ACE, thus reducing blood pressure, especially Systolic Pressure. However, there is an undesirable side effect of Captopril, it cause constantly dry cough. Another class of antihypertensive drugs, such as Losartan, its function is to prevent the ANGII sticking to the AT1 Receptor, and thus allow increased blood pressure. Losartan do not cause the coughing side effects, gradually becoming more popular blood pressure medicine; but the result of lowering blood pressure was unsatisfactory, because it's role is mainly in blood vessels, the blood will wash it off easily.
However, heart is not the only organ can regulate the blood pressure. Other body tissues, such as blood vessel itself, would be useful. Vascular wall smooth muscle contract, blood pressure goes up; on the contrary, with the smooth muscle relax, blood pressure will go down, also the narrower the blood vessels the higher the blood pressure. There are many factors that can affect the level of blood pressure. Such as height, blood viscosity. The higher the body, the heart requires more pressure to pump blood to the body; if the blood is viscous, the heart have to pump harder and the blood pressure will be higher. Other factors include the mental state, the pace of life, eating habits, and even weather.
Why we must pay attention to blood pressure? Because in normal circumstances, we rely on healthy blood pressure , it is very significant that blood can transport around our body, if blood pressure is too low, there is no blood supply to the body, on the contrary, blood pressure is too high, blood vessel will damage. According to WHO guidelines issued in 1999, 120/ 80 upper and lower pressure is the ideal ratio; 139/ 89 is normal blood pressure, 140/ 90 to 160/ 95 is high blood pressure 161/ 96 would be very high blood pressure.
Dietary supplement and natural food supplement is ideal in treating high blood pressure. Scientists pointed out that resveratrol from grape Resveratrol, may reduce the blood vessel AT1. On the other hand, Quercetin can on its own, reducing the pressure. There is also a good thing, called arginine. Under normal condtions, vascular wall cells themselves have the ability to reduce blood pressure, it is arginine, with its manufacture of nitric oxide (NO); after NO stimulate a biological enzyme called Guanylate Cyclase, it turn into a substance called CGMP, which can relax smooth muscle of blood vessel walls, as well as blood vessels, blood pressure will drop thereafter. Arginine is the raw materials to make NO in vascular endothelial cell.
Therefore, a combination supplement and health formula of resveratrol, Quercetin and Arginine, can be a subtle way to help reduce blood pressure, maintain healthy blood vessel.
Human body's blood pressure, mainly come from contraction and release of the heart, but in order to cope with various changes, there must be "fine tuning" mechanism. One of them is the blood vessel. Vascular wall of smooth muscle, the muscle can contract and expand. If it contract the blood pressure will rise; if it expand the blood pressure will decrease.
In the contraction, there is a set of actions, movements began in the liver. Liver first to create "angiotensinogen" (Angiotensinogen) hormone. This hormone then travel to kidneys with blood, from renin to "angiotensin-1" (Angiotensin-I, ANGI); ANGI go further with the blood to the lungs, from there, a biological enzyme called ACE change it to "vascular tone factor 2 "(Angiotensin-II,ANGII). ANGII will stick to blood vessels receptor (called AT1 Receptor), and the smooth muscle of vessel walls in blood vessels will narrow, as a result blood pressure will increase correspondingly.
A drug called Captopril, can greatly inhibit the ACE, thus reducing blood pressure, especially Systolic Pressure. However, there is an undesirable side effect of Captopril, it cause constantly dry cough. Another class of antihypertensive drugs, such as Losartan, its function is to prevent the ANGII sticking to the AT1 Receptor, and thus allow increased blood pressure. Losartan do not cause the coughing side effects, gradually becoming more popular blood pressure medicine; but the result of lowering blood pressure was unsatisfactory, because it's role is mainly in blood vessels, the blood will wash it off easily.
However, heart is not the only organ can regulate the blood pressure. Other body tissues, such as blood vessel itself, would be useful. Vascular wall smooth muscle contract, blood pressure goes up; on the contrary, with the smooth muscle relax, blood pressure will go down, also the narrower the blood vessels the higher the blood pressure. There are many factors that can affect the level of blood pressure. Such as height, blood viscosity. The higher the body, the heart requires more pressure to pump blood to the body; if the blood is viscous, the heart have to pump harder and the blood pressure will be higher. Other factors include the mental state, the pace of life, eating habits, and even weather.
Why we must pay attention to blood pressure? Because in normal circumstances, we rely on healthy blood pressure , it is very significant that blood can transport around our body, if blood pressure is too low, there is no blood supply to the body, on the contrary, blood pressure is too high, blood vessel will damage. According to WHO guidelines issued in 1999, 120/ 80 upper and lower pressure is the ideal ratio; 139/ 89 is normal blood pressure, 140/ 90 to 160/ 95 is high blood pressure 161/ 96 would be very high blood pressure.
Dietary supplement and natural food supplement is ideal in treating high blood pressure. Scientists pointed out that resveratrol from grape Resveratrol, may reduce the blood vessel AT1. On the other hand, Quercetin can on its own, reducing the pressure. There is also a good thing, called arginine. Under normal condtions, vascular wall cells themselves have the ability to reduce blood pressure, it is arginine, with its manufacture of nitric oxide (NO); after NO stimulate a biological enzyme called Guanylate Cyclase, it turn into a substance called CGMP, which can relax smooth muscle of blood vessel walls, as well as blood vessels, blood pressure will drop thereafter. Arginine is the raw materials to make NO in vascular endothelial cell.
Therefore, a combination supplement and health formula of resveratrol, Quercetin and Arginine, can be a subtle way to help reduce blood pressure, maintain healthy blood vessel.
Friday, June 4, 2010
Who's in charge? Bull or Bear?
Good news is I sold all my SPXU with profit today when the market open gap down. Bad news is I should have make more money if I didn't set my limit order before I went to bed last night. That's the disadvantage of being a part time trader. I have to set my order and organize my trading plan in advance. However, a part time trader or we call it swing trader, can have a better perspective to look at the big picture of the market and require less emotion control comparing with day trader. Frankly, I pretty enjoy what I am doing, that's why I want to share my trading experience with you in this blog.
The market has a big sell off today, S&P close 1064.88 down 37.95 points. I have mention in yesterday blog that the volume of last three rally days is very low, but the down day like today is high. A healthy market doesn't looks like this. It seems to me that the market really want to test the 1040 low again. Watch out! If 1040 fail to support, our target of 80 weeks moving average 990 may be the next stop.
If we consider seasonal factor, we shouldn't put too much weight on bear at this moment, we may need to consider accumulating little by little. Although it look bearish to me at this moment, it also show me that market is trying to search a bottom. Therefore I am 100% in cash right now, let the market tell me what to do. If it really go to 990 with extreme fear, I think I will be a buyer.
The market has a big sell off today, S&P close 1064.88 down 37.95 points. I have mention in yesterday blog that the volume of last three rally days is very low, but the down day like today is high. A healthy market doesn't looks like this. It seems to me that the market really want to test the 1040 low again. Watch out! If 1040 fail to support, our target of 80 weeks moving average 990 may be the next stop.
If we consider seasonal factor, we shouldn't put too much weight on bear at this moment, we may need to consider accumulating little by little. Although it look bearish to me at this moment, it also show me that market is trying to search a bottom. Therefore I am 100% in cash right now, let the market tell me what to do. If it really go to 990 with extreme fear, I think I will be a buyer.
Thursday, June 3, 2010
Trade with support and resistance
The S&P 500 Index 1102.83 racked up a slim gain of 4.5 points, or 0.4%, it's a major psychological win by taking out the 1,100 level. And, like the Dow, the SPX is still holding strong atop its 10-day trendline. However, the 200 days moving average is still act as a cover.
I got my SPXU order filled when the SPX reach the 200 days moving average today, not a big order though because the momentum is kind of strong at this moment. I might sell it if the market is on my side tomorrow.
Tomorrow is a very significant day. We have non farm payroll, unemployment rate coming out. If there is a strong up day with huge volume, then I believe it will attempt the next few resistance which is 1120, 1150, and 1160. If it fail the 200 days moving average tomorrow, watch out the S&P retest 1070 and previous low 1040.
I got my SPXU order filled when the SPX reach the 200 days moving average today, not a big order though because the momentum is kind of strong at this moment. I might sell it if the market is on my side tomorrow.
Tomorrow is a very significant day. We have non farm payroll, unemployment rate coming out. If there is a strong up day with huge volume, then I believe it will attempt the next few resistance which is 1120, 1150, and 1160. If it fail the 200 days moving average tomorrow, watch out the S&P retest 1070 and previous low 1040.
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
Where the market is heading in longer term?
S&P 500 today up 27 points, the next resistance will be the 200 days moving average which is 1105.62, after that we have a gap to fill at 1115-1120. Be very careful and alert to watch the market at this point, see if it wants to rise or sink.
Today I am going to talk about the bull and bear situation because I think many people are confused at this time with the direction of the market.
Based on the longer-term phasing and valuation aspects, I belief that the advance out of the March 2009 low has been a bear market rally. Based on my analysis and the data at hand today, I believe that this rally will ultimately prove to be a much longer-term bear market. Historically, Phase II declines are the most devastating and it is my belief that once this bear market rally has run its course, the Phase II decline will be far worse than what was seen between October 2007 and March 2009.
The market also start a traditional bullish primary trend change with the advance up out of the 2009 Phase I low, and I believe that bullish primary trend change is currently still intact. However, I think that the advance out of the March 2009 low has been crippled and obviously the events seen in May were not good.
The last three rally we have seen in May, 21, 25, 27 and yesterday are below average volume, we have to be more cautious when we want to get back to this current market. Yes, the market is oversold right now, but if the confidence of the market is down and lack of buying, it will stay at oversold area for a long period of time. And I deeply believe that the second wave of banking trouble is going to start. At that time, the phase II down leg will be in full force. I will suggest you to lighten your portfolio in each market rally from now on so as to avoid to be the next bear market victim.
In seasonal point of view, you may not want to put a heavy weight on bear at this time because June and July are not the worse months, you may want to wait for August through October. Therefore, if the market sell off to the support I mention yesterday which is the 80 weeks moving average S&P 990 with extreme fear and capitulation mode, you may want to add up your portfolio.
Today I am going to talk about the bull and bear situation because I think many people are confused at this time with the direction of the market.
Based on the longer-term phasing and valuation aspects, I belief that the advance out of the March 2009 low has been a bear market rally. Based on my analysis and the data at hand today, I believe that this rally will ultimately prove to be a much longer-term bear market. Historically, Phase II declines are the most devastating and it is my belief that once this bear market rally has run its course, the Phase II decline will be far worse than what was seen between October 2007 and March 2009.
The market also start a traditional bullish primary trend change with the advance up out of the 2009 Phase I low, and I believe that bullish primary trend change is currently still intact. However, I think that the advance out of the March 2009 low has been crippled and obviously the events seen in May were not good.
The last three rally we have seen in May, 21, 25, 27 and yesterday are below average volume, we have to be more cautious when we want to get back to this current market. Yes, the market is oversold right now, but if the confidence of the market is down and lack of buying, it will stay at oversold area for a long period of time. And I deeply believe that the second wave of banking trouble is going to start. At that time, the phase II down leg will be in full force. I will suggest you to lighten your portfolio in each market rally from now on so as to avoid to be the next bear market victim.
In seasonal point of view, you may not want to put a heavy weight on bear at this time because June and July are not the worse months, you may want to wait for August through October. Therefore, if the market sell off to the support I mention yesterday which is the 80 weeks moving average S&P 990 with extreme fear and capitulation mode, you may want to add up your portfolio.
Tuesday, June 1, 2010
Market update & BP's future
Do you know that Today is the 22nd straight session the S&P 500 Index hasn't had consecutive up days? – the longest streak since October 2008, which wasn't a good time to be long the market. I still insist that market should be long only after extreme capitulation, it doesn't matter short, medium or long term.
I mention in the last few days, my entry point for this correction is simple, I want to see some extreme fear, capitulation in this market, S&P 500 testing about 990 which is the 80 weeks moving average and bounce off. This is my personal view for the best scenario if you want to long. Since the market fail the 200 days moving average last Friday, if the second attempt break out and surpass the 200 moving average. The chance is high for the market to sail higher. However, if it fail again, there is a chance to test the previous low 1040 again, and there is also a head and shoulder neckline around 1060. If both of these support fail, we'll sit tight and get ready to push the buy button.
Failure to stop an oil leak from spewing millions of gallons of crude into the Gulf of Mexico may leave the biggest oil and gas producer in the U.S. in a fight to stay independent. BP shares have plunged 36 percent since the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig leased by the company exploded on April 20, wiping more than 40 billion pounds ($58 billion) from the company’s value. That may make BP cheap enough to attract acquisition interest. I feel bad for the long term investor. This is another good lesson not to hold a single stock for your portfolio even though it is a super strong stock in the sector and market. Even an elephant will stumble one day. I don't see any reason and hope for holding BP right now or near future. Remember "don't fall in love with your stock?'
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