Why were insiders cashing out ?

NYSE volumes have shrunk significantly, running as low as 30% below average, which could mean a few things. Whatever the reason, higher highs on low volume is generally not a positive sign.

There is one indicator flashing danger at the moment. We should be aware of it--the insider sell/buy ratio, which last week saw wild numbers on the sell side at 434:1.  For the week, $1.7 million worth of stock was bought in sixteen separate purchases, while 126 sales totaled just under $750 million.

Why were insiders cashing out in such manic fashion? Do they know something that we don't know? 

Many of the stock market experts continue to be extremely bullish, and you are hearing again the tired and bogus line that “This time it`s different”.

Don`t buy it, and be on top of reducing equity allocations or have a plan on the downside so you don`t get caught in the next down -50% market cycle.

Extreme caution ! Bears in charge if S&P 1270 is broken

The Nasdaq did climb back to 2750, then fell steeply on last Friday. We have been warning for an imminent downturn, as indicated on the charts.
This could well be the start of a multi-month slide. We have come a long way since last August, but we need to remember that markets never go up in straight line.

The S&P touched the 1300 level, then turned down. The uptrend is still intact, so there is room for some rebound this week. But the upcoming bearish period is likely to take the S&P down in February, and break the uptrend that has been in place since last August. In this week, 1270 area acts as the key support. Any fall below 1270 would confirm this scenario. Then the first target would become 1180.

Despite an overbought market condition, rising oil prices, and Middle East governments in chaos, stocks rallied to new highs. The threats to the political stability of Egypt, Jordan, Yemen and even Saudi Arabia were ignored as investors focused instead on an improving U.S. economy.

Despite the DJIA crossing 12000 and S&P 500 breaching 1300 this week, Many indices in the U.S., as well as globally have failed to follow the DJIA and S&P 500 over the last week, and I see this as a major warning that a pullback or correction is near. In addition to the non-confirmations by many indices, I am also seeing plenty of divergences with respect to market internal data. At the same time, price momentum is overbought on a daily and weekly basis, and market sentiment is at extremely bullish camp. This, to me, all adds up to a 5% to 10% decline in the major indices over the next month or two.

With the exception of very quick bullish trades, I suggest extreme caution. When this market turns south, there will not be enough room to provide those seeking the exits.

US Debt crosses $14 trillion mark

The amount of U.S. debt subject to the country's legal maximum has topped $14 trillion for the first time.

That means the country is less than $300 billion away from the $14.294 trillion debt ceiling, which is a cap on how much the federal government can legally borrow. The Treasury Department estimates that borrowing could reach the cap sometime between March 31 and May 16.

If U.S. borrowing hits the ceiling and lawmakers fail to raise it, Treasury would be prohibited from borrowing more money. The country would be unable to pay its bondholders or fund programs and benefits in full. That's because there wouldn't be enough tax revenue coming in to cover all of the country's bills.

The effect would be crippling not only to the U.S. economy but very likely to economies and markets worldwide. At a minimum, a default could pummel U.S. bonds, the dollar and U.S. investors' portfolios.

Today, the United States spends roughly 76 cents of every federal tax dollar on just four things: Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and interest on the $14 TRILLION DEBT. That leaves 24 cents of revenue to pay for everything else the federal government does. That's not a lot. But it's a mint compared to what could be left over by 2020, according to a simulation made by the Government Accountability Office.

Fail to curb the growth in the country's debt, by 2020 Washington could be spending 92 cents of every tax dollar on Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and interest alone. That would leave just 8 cents to pay for everything else.

Why It's Harder For Older Women to Have Healthy Babies

No one likes being labeled, but celebrate your 35th birthday and get pregnant and you're out of luck: like it or not, the letters “AMA” get slapped across your chart. AMA, or advanced medical age, is largely an arbitrary designation. After all, it's not as if your eggs are aware it's your big day. But experts need a way to delineate the increasing risks inherent in conceiving a child after you've passed the 35-year mark.

As women reach their mid- to late-30s and hit 40, they are at greater risk of having chromosomal problems in their eggs — known in scientific terms as maternal age–associated aneuploidy. As a result, all the cells that result from the abnormal chromosomes will also be irregular.

Most of the time, the situation turns lethal because an affected embryo will die shortly after. Down syndrome, or Trisomy 21, is a notable exception; it's one of the only aneuploidies that can result in a live birth. “By age 40, probably half of the eggs are aneuploidies,” says Michael Lampson, an assistant professor of biology at Penn who has co-authored research into the mechanism behind the abnormalities.

Now Lampson and Richard Schultz, a biology professor at Penn, have finally figured out what's behind all the abnormal chromosomes. They used mice to show that aneuploidy is probably a result of poor chromosome cohesion. What's that? Well, first a mini-science lesson: When chromosomes replicate, they have to be held together. Molecules called cohesins do that job, allowing chromosomes to pair off correctly. Imagine two sticks as the chromosomes, and a rubber band binding them together as the cohesin. In normal cell division, one stick goes to one cell and one stick goes to another. But aneuploidy upends the normal path of cell division.

In a recent issue of Current Biology, Lampson and Schultz concluded that the increase in chromosomal disorders experienced by older women is largely related to a decrease in cohesin proteins, which diminish as a part of the aging process. Chromosomes in older eggs simply don't have enough of this protein, and that causes the chromosomes to do some unscripted acrobatics: Rather than heading off in the right direction toward two separate cells, they might both wind up attaching to one cell or another. It's during this delicate period that mistakes can result in chromosomal disorders, including Down syndrome.

The projection that half of 40-year-old women's eggs have chromosomal problems? It's probably a significant underestimate, since most aneuploidies abort early in pregnancy. “Most of the time, those bad eggs are really bad,” says Schultz. “They don't give rise to a child.”

While the research goes a long way toward explaining why older women have a tougher time delivering a healthy baby, it doesn't offer any solutions. “We can't come in with a magic bullet and make it better,” says Schultz. “The biological clock goes tick-tock once you start hitting 35. That's why it's easier for younger women to have children.”

One possibility might be to reload the eggs with cohesin. The protein is added to the chromosomes in egg cells when a baby girl is still in utero. “That cohesin has to last for 40 years or so, which is why it's so susceptible,” says Lampson. Even if it would be possible to inject cohesin into eggs, it's likely that older eggs wouldn't welcome the infusion. “It's one of the things we're thinking about,” says Lampson, “but we don't know exactly what to do.”

Still, it's a start, notes Schultz. “To fix something, you first need to know what's broken," he says.

Can a Veggie-Rich Diet Make You More Beautiful?

There are so many healthy reasons to eat vegetables that it feels redundant to keep enumerating them. But if a stronger immune system, cancer-fighting antioxidants and heart-healthy fiber aren't reason enough for some, perhaps we can appeal to their vanity: a study published in the journal Evolution and Human Behaviour found that eating foods high in carotenoids — a nutrient found in some fruits, leafy greens and root vegetables — gave them a healthy glow that rivaled a sun tan and made them more attractive in tests.

"We found that, given the choice between skin color caused by suntan and skin color caused by carotenoids, people preferred the carotenoid skin color," Dr. Ian Stephen, the study's lead researcher, now of the School of Psychology, University of Nottingham, Malaysia Campus, said in a statement. "So if you want a healthier and more attractive skin color, you are better off eating a healthy diet with plenty of fruit and vegetables than lying in the sun."

People with diets high in fruits and vegetables had demonstrably yellower skin, the researchers found. But the scientists weren't sure if the veggie glow would be perceived differently than one achieved by sitting in the sun. So they asked study participants to look at 51 different Caucasian faces and adjust the skin tones to the hues, ranging from those typical of a day in the sun to the glow from a carotenoid-rich diet, that they thought looked healthiest.



From left: suntanned, neutral, with carotenoid coloring (Courtesy of Ian Stephen, University of Nottingham)

Want the glow? Try upping your intake of carrots, tomatoes, sweet potatoes, bell peppers, cantaloupe, spinach and kale.

Depressed short interest is regularly a harbinger of an imminent slide in stocks

Stronger than expected economic data earlier this month had many believing that not only had we made our way out of the recession woods, but that we had actually arrived at the beaches of economic paradise.

Better than expected private payroll numbers, improving retail sales and small business confidence levels, and a climbing PPI all of these support the economy's recovery. Beyond the U.S., too, in the U.K., and China, manufacturing numbers have been strong, and German retail sales earlier this month surprised on the upside.

But is it so?
Had we actually arrived at the beaches of economic paradise?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics termed "an unprecedented rise" in long-term unemployment, i.e., things look very, very bad.  See below chart:

Also, consumer confidence levels dropped unexpectedly in December. Home prices continue to fall, the largest cities are seeing the biggest drops, 1.3% on average, over last month's report.  Millions of foreclosures are also coming to market and tight credit is still the major obstacle.  2010 will go down as the worst year for home sales in more than a decade.  And with mortgage rates continuing to go higher, the chances of a near-term turnabout are roughly zero. 

Consider, too, an important market internal: short interest.  The latest, mid-December reading shows overall short interest at levels lower than any time since the waning months of 2007.  Look here:
 

Elevated short interest levels are nearly always a precondition of a bull market, the opposite is also the case.  Depressed short interest is regularly a harbinger of an imminent slide in stocks.

Based on the longer-term phasing and valuation aspects, I belief that the advance out of the March 2009 low has been a bear market rally, this rally will ultimately prove to be a much longer-term bear market. Historically, Phase II declines are the most devastating and it is my belief that once this bear market rally has run its course, the Phase II decline will be far worse than what was seen between October 2007 and March 2009.

Don't be too greedy, just lighten your stocks holding when the market is still in a good shape, you may not have chance to get out of the bear gate when too many people are rushing out at the panic mode.

Year-End Rally?

Many indicators are at or close to the April highs. Since the indicators are inverse, they are telling us that a statistical chance of a strong, high-volume advance is low, but the chance of a mild correction is high. Thus, short-term caution is advised with day traders taking positions on rallies up to intraday resistance lines. But, as I said before, the long-term and intermediate-term technical readings remain bullish.

If the market can extend the rally till the end of December, I don't think a correction can be avoid in January

 Nasdaq closed at 2637.54, S&P closed at 1240.4 on Friday. They are coming very close to our target 2650 and 1250. Market may not drop before holiday, however, now is the time to lighten your long holding. If the market can extend the rally till the end of December, I don't think a correction can be avoid in January.

There is a possibility of major indices and the Dow non-confirmation, coupled with very poor sentiment numbers and overbought internal indicators, I remain a very cautious bull. The market is quite sensitive to news, and the internal numbers show a definite lack of commitment, while the Nasdaq is the strongest, indicating that the public is chasing lower quality stocks. That, too, is nasty.

The sovereign debt problem in Europe is a crisis that is not going away, and will not end well, so it will be ongoing headline news that will affect the markets periodically.

All in all, tighten your seat belt and get ready for a roller coaster ride in January.

Market may top off at Nasdaq 2650 and S&P500 1250

The stock market this week so far is very strong and bullish. Investors were encouraged by a preliminary agreement between the White House and Republican leaders on a tax package that would extend the current Bush cuts for two years. A reduction in payroll taxes for a year, an extension of jobless benefits, and a reinstatement of the estate tax at 35% are also part of the plan.

Stock markets are going back up testing their recent highs, just as we indicated last week. Some markets have gone into new 52 week highs already.

So we have to keep our eye on the charts, and when the longer up trend breaks down, then I have to be ready to exit the market. Upside potential is probably limited by the overhead trendline that has been in play all year long. So if we reach Nasdaq 2650 or S&P500 1250 this week, that will be a very good selling price. So I am ready to sell near Nasdaq 2650, or S&P500 1250.

Enjoy you bull run and lighten your investment

The market rallied again on last Friday. The bulls finally crushed the S&P 500 resistance line at 1210 yesterday, with a close that was 11 points higher than that important number and just 4 points off of November’s high. So the only remaining barrier for the indices is their November highs, which is 11506 for the Dow, 2593 for the Nasdaq and 1127 for S&P500.

You should cash in some good profit since my bullish alert last Sunday. Although December is the most bullish month of the year. I suggest you lighten your long position at this level.

B Vitamins Protect Aging Brains

New research suggests B vitamins may help lower homocysteine levels, possibly offsetting further decline in people with mild thinking (cognitive) impairment and preventing progression to more serious forms of dementia.

The brain loses some of its mass with age, even in otherwise healthy people. This progressive “brain atrophy” is more pronounced in people with mild cognitive impairment that doesn’t interfere with normal functioning, but is characterized by some problems related to memory, thinking, language, and judgment. Brain atrophy is much accelerated in people with advanced dementia, like that seen in Alzheimer’s disease.

The homocysteine connection
Higher blood levels of homocysteine, a toxic byproduct of an amino acid, is one risk factor for brain atrophy and Alzheimer’s disease. B vitamins are needed to break down homocysteine, so it’s been suggested that if they help lower homocysteine levels, they might also be able to slow the rate of brain atrophy.

The new study, which was published in the journal, PLoS ONE, involved 168 people over 70 years old with mild cognitive impairment. The participants were given 0.8 mg folic acid, 0.5 mg vitamin B12, and 20 mg vitamin B6 or placebo every day for 24 months. At the beginning of the study and after two years, MRIs of their brains assessed changes in brain mass.

Blood levels of homocysteine dropped by 23% in the people taking B vitamins, and the rate of brain atrophy per year was almost 30% lower in the B-vitamin group than in the placebo group at the end of the study.

“It is tempting to suggest that this finding is consistent with the view that raised homocysteine is a direct cause of atrophy,” the authors commented. “However, it does not exclude that homocysteine is only a marker for low-normal levels of the vitamins, which are themselves the causal factors.”

Tips for top brain function

Try these tips to keep your brain going strong.

• Use it or lose it. Studies have shown that staying mentally active is vital to keeping brain synapses healthy. Try learning a new instrument or craft, and branch out with different kinds of brain-teaser games.

• Move your body. Physical exercise is just as important as the mental kind when it comes to preserving healthy brain function. Aim for at least 30 minutes on most days of the week. Intense exercise is best, but you’ll still reap benefits just from walking.

• Eat your way there. Blueberries, wild salmon, and nuts and seeds all provide essential nutrients that have been shown to help preserve healthy brain function. Keeping your heart healthy with foods like whole grains, legumes, olive oil, and avocados has the added benefit of improving circulation to the brain.

• Take a multivitamin. Many comprehensive multivitamins contain B vitamins in the dosages used in the new study. Always talk to your doctor before starting a new medication or supplement.

We may even launch into December with a meaningful rally

It’s impossible to predict the outcome or full impact of the North Korean attack on its neighbor, so uncertainty hung like a cloud over trading last week, and we all know how Wall Street feels about that. However, not only did stocks have a modest day down on Friday but they ended the day with a small rally. That's a good sign for bulls.

The S&P 500 support at 1174, and the 50-day moving averages of the major indices held. That is an encouragement to the bulls, and the fact that we got through the holiday week with little damage, we may even launch into December with a meaningful rally.

Vitamin E Tocotrienols Show Immune-Boosting Potential

Daily supplements rich in vitamin E tocotrienols may boost the immune response and immune function in healthy women following a vaccination.

According to findings published in the European Journal of Clinical Nutrition, women who received daily supplements of a palm tocotrienol complex for one month prior to a single tetanus toxoid (TT) vaccine experienced improvements in their immune response, compared with women who received placebo prior to the vaccine.

Tocotrienols are a form of vitamin E that have traditionally been in the shadow of the more popular vitamin E form—tocopherols.
Overall, there are eight forms of vitamin E: four tocopherols (alpha, beta, gamma, delta) and four tocotrienols (alpha, beta, gamma, delta). Alpha-tocopherol (alpha-Toc) is the main source found in supplements and in the European diet, while gamma-tocopherol (gamma-Toc) is the most common form in the American diet.

Tocotrienols (TCT) are only minor components in plants, although several sources with relatively high levels include palm oil, cereal grains and rice bran.

To test the effects of the tocotrienol-rich palm fraction on immune function, Malaysia-based scientists recruited 108 healthy non-smoking women aged between 18 and 25 years. The women were randomly split into two groups: One group received 400 mg of the palm tocotrienol complex per day, and the other group received placebo (400 mg per day of soy oil), each for two months.

Blood samples were analyzed at the start of the study, and again after 28 and 56 days. After 28 days of supplementation all of the participants received a single shot of tetanus toxoid vaccine.
Results showed significant increases in levels of the anti-TT antibody, interferon (IFN)-gamma and interleukin (IL)-4 in the tocotrienol group, compared with placebo.

“This study provides evidence that daily supplementation of 400 mg tocotrienol-rich fraction can have a beneficial role in enhancing the immune response of healthy subjects following an immunogenic challenge such as vaccination,” stated the researchers.

Furthermore, blood levels of tocotrienols increased, compared with placebo, with the greatest increases in alpha-T3, followed by gamma-T3 and delta-T3.

Antioxidant Alpha-Carotene

High blood levels of the antioxidant alpha-carotene appear to be associated with a reduced risk of dying over a 14-year period, according to a report posted online November 22 that will be published in the March 28 print issue of Archives of Internal Medicine.

Oxygen-related damage to DNA, proteins and fats may play a role in the development of chronic diseases like heart disease and cancer, according to background information in the article.

Carotenoids -- including beta-carotene, alpha-carotene and lycopene -- are produced by plants and microorganisms and act as antioxidants, counteracting this damage. Carotenoids in the human body are obtained mainly through eating fruits and vegetables rich in the nutrients, or through antioxidant supplements.

Although studies suggest eating more fruits and vegetables is associated with lower risk of chronic diseases, randomized controlled trials have not shown any benefit for beta-carotene supplements, the authors note. "Therefore, carotenoids other than beta-carotene may contribute to the reduction in disease risk, and their effects on risk of disease merit investigation," the authors write.

Chaoyang Li, M.D., Ph.D., of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, and colleagues assessed the relationship between alpha-carotene and the risk of death among 15,318 adults age 20 and older who participated in the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey Follow-up Study. Participants underwent a medical examination and provided blood samples between 1988 and 1994, and were followed through 2006 to determine whether and how they died.

Over the course of the study, 3,810 participants died; the risk for dying was lower with higher levels of alpha-carotene in the blood. Compared with individuals with blood alpha-carotene levels between 0 and 1 micrograms per deciliter, the risk of death during the study period was 23 percent lower among who had concentrations between 2 and 3 micrograms per deciliter, 27 percent lower with levels between 4 and 5 micrograms per deciliter, 34 percent lower with levels between 6 and 8 micrograms per deciliter and 39 percent lower with levels of 9 micrograms per deciliter or higher.

Higher alpha-carotene concentration also appeared to be associated with lower risk of dying from cardiovascular disease or cancer individually, and of all other causes. "The association between serum alpha-carotene concentrations and risk of death from all causes was significant in most subgroups stratified by demographic characteristics, lifestyle habits and health risk factors," the authors write.

Alpha-carotene is chemically similar to beta-carotene but may be more effective at inhibiting the growth of cancer cells in the brain, liver and skin, they note. "Moreover, results from a population-based case-control study of the association between the consumption of fruits and vegetables and risk of lung cancer suggest that consumption of yellow-orange (carrots, sweet potatoes or pumpkin and winter squash) and dark-green (broccoli, green beans, green peas, spinach, turnips greens, collards and leaf lettuce) vegetables, which have a high alpha-carotene content, was more strongly associated with a decreased risk of lung cancer than was consumption of all other types of vegetables," the authors write.

The results support increasing fruit and vegetable consumption as a way of preventing premature death, and suggest a need for clinical research into the health benefits of alpha-carotene, they conclude.

I still suggest traders or investors to lighten their stock holding on the way up of this rally

The current stock market is very susceptible to news, because the lack of conviction on the part of both buyers and sellers. This leaves the daily moves in the hands of traders who bounce the indices from support to resistance in days, resulting in extended periods of range-bound trading. If the pattern continues, a solid move in either direction could be postponed until next year.

From August to November, A lot of rallies has been forced by liquidity, and once that injection of cash stops, I suspect the market's ability to launch another rally.

Jobs are still missing in this rally, housing prices are still relatively weak, earnings were better because the projection was so low, and ultimately, there's not a real big reason to buy stocks.

Ireland has formally requested substantial "financial assistance" from the European Union. The money is required to avoid the collapse of Irish banks, which have seen a major outflow of funds over the last year.

Personally, I still suggest traders or investors to lighten their stock holding on the way up of this rally.